Showing posts with label business process. Show all posts
Showing posts with label business process. Show all posts

Friday, August 1, 2025

New Book to Guide Your Digital & AI Journeys

 Organizations face numerous opportunities and challenges in leveraging both maturing and emerging technologies. The authors of a new and exciting book believe that processes and customer journeys are a great place to innovate, leverage, and gain traction in thriving and capitalizing with AI for both planning processes ahead of time and depicting the behaviors and actions of AI in a process model. This new book demonstrates how processes can facilitate the creation, completion, and verification of desired outcomes. Please click here for a link to Amazon, where you can purchase a copy for your reference. 

Additional books of interest include:

Business Process Management: The Next Wave 

Digital Transformation: A Brief Guide for Game Changers




Tuesday, May 20, 2025

What are People Reading in 2025?

There was a shift in early 2025 to topics of tradition over the massive interest in AI exhibited in 2024. It's not that folks aren't following through with AI; they are combining and contrasting proven methods and tech, so show AI in the context of success. You can refer to 2024's hot topics by clicking here. 


There was also a shift in active countries other than the US and China. The northern European countries are typically well represented, but other than Norway, the mix is very different than usual.  



Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Preorder Practical Business Process Modeling and Analysis:

This book should be handy for those who want to master digital change with incremental business process management modeled for AI transformation. All authors have significant real-world experience and are thought leaders in digital processes and customer experiences. Click here to preorder 





Book Description

Every business transformation begins with a question: How can we do this better? Whether it’s eliminating inefficiencies, optimizing business operations, automating repetitive tasks, or reimagining entire workflows with the help of AI, success depends on understanding and optimizing business processes. However, with shifting market demands and evolving technologies, finding the right approach can be challenging.

This book dives into business process modelling, guiding you through frameworks, techniques, and tools that drive digital transformation. You'll learn to visualize complex workflows, establish scalable process architectures, and integrate automation for efficiency. With insights into BPMN and business value analysis, you'll discover how data-driven decisions can lead to smarter, more agile operations. Through real-world examples, you’ll see how leading organizations have optimized their processes and how you can apply the same principles while embarking on a digital change program.

By the end of this book, you’ll be able to design, analyze, and refine business processes for measurable impact. You'll master the synergy of technology, process, and strategy to build adaptable systems that drive sustainable growth in digital transformation.

What you will learn: 

Build scalable process architectures for long-term efficiency and adaptability.
Avoid common pitfalls in digital transformation and automation.
Apply real-world strategies and frameworks to optimize operations effectively.
Discover methods and tools to enhance business process analysis and decision-making.
Learn how BPMN can be extended for scenarios like process simulation and risk management.
Measure and maximize business value from process transformation efforts.

Who this book is for

Whether you're a business analyst, project manager, consultant, or strategist, you likely face challenges in streamlining workflows, optimizing processes, or integrating AI and automation. This book provides the tools, techniques, and frameworks to visualize, analyze, and improve business operations. Some familiarity with business processes and technology is helpful, but no prior expertise in BPMN or automation is required.

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Art of the 1st Quarter 2025

 With a new song coming out in January 2025, my art focused on an image that projects the theme of the song and an AI-generated music video. Dark Star Love is about an exciting and scary chance meeting with a kindred soul. Will it last or will they move on? It's like plunging into a black hole of sorts. Click on this link for the full video 




Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Top 5 Predictions for 2025




1. Change will dominate


Change is accelerating, and the environments in which businesses and individuals participate are changing. Complications and emergent complexity will increase, thus pushing situational analysis to the fore. While more information sources on trends and potential change are available, few businesses are taking advantage of dealing with change proactively. Those who make situational analysis a proficiency will make dealing with change a key to thriving in 2025 and beyond.

Read About Change:

Situational Analysis

Situation Analysis with SWOTS

Big Change and Peeps

2. Lack of Speed Kills

Organizations and individuals that can't keep up will be in for uncomfortable days ahead. Not only will proactivity be necessary, but the ability to adapt with the proper speed will become a cherished proficiency. Organizations need to see where they are in real-time and make decisions that follow expected and unexpected situations at all levels. Quickly taking the right actions is the most crucial ability for organizations and individuals. Bombardments from bad actors and impure data/information will complicate it.


Read About Speed:

Real-Time Awareness

Decisions, Decisions

On Point Actions


3. AI will be a Force Multiplier

Many facets of AI will gain momentum in 2025. AI will be essential to deliver productivity gains necessary to move the needle for GDP growth while reducing the hours worked for organizations and individuals. AI will unlock and multiply human potential in new and better ways. AI will be embedded in more and more interactions, processes, and applications in 2025. AI will act as agents to complete tasks for humans, enhance skills as humans complete their assignments, and give knowledge and advice in various domains and roles that humans participate in. It makes no difference if you are a consumer, employee, investor, or creator; AI will be there in emerging ways in 2025. Ethics will be tested in 2025 as some use AI in unexpected ways.

Read About AI Actions

AI for Good!

Fear of AI is Overcome

AI is Productive


4. Many Facets of AI

Many, but not all, facets of AI will make significant progress in 2025. Typically, flashy forms of AI catch the eye of the news and markets. In 2024, it was Generative AI, and in 2025, so far, it's Agentic AI. While markets tend to follow the flash, with AI, it's more than the flash. Past forms of AI will continue to build multiple baselines while the "AI du jour" will cast its temporary spells. AI will likely be used in combination with other digital technologies to find soft spots for increased productivity. It won’t be just automation; it will be assistance as well in 2025, leading to augmentation by AI and teamwork with AI.

Read About AI Types

Types of AI

AI More in Control

Automation & Assistance


5 Govern Now or Pay Later

While we all wait for governance and legal frameworks from the strategic and governmental levels, we need to do our job by setting proper goals and boundaries for AI. As AI emerges, setting up good goals and boundaries will be essential, along with auditing outcomes. Governance will lag until something bad happens at a local or global level. There will be goal and boundary conflicts until an overall framework is agreed upon and enforced, but I would settle for the framework for now. Enforcement will evolve slower than the framework initially.


Read About AI Governance

Goal Life Cycle

AI Needs for Governance Over Time

Key Technologies for Goal Management

















Monday, January 13, 2025

What Did Folks Read in 2024?

2024 was a year of AI discovery. The goal was to prove that AI could help businesses, so many proof-of-concept projects and pilots were conducted in organizations. The hope was that AI could enhance or accelerate the digital business movement. Most proof-of-concept projects proved valuable, so baking AI into digital business efforts became a reality for the future. As generative AI took the spotlight, there was a scurry in using AI to create content and code. This was a significant shift from 2023, when AI was nascent and emphasized digital processes. Customer Journey topics consistently fall behind AI and Digital in aggregate. 

                      2024 Twelve-Month Sinur Blog Activity




In 2024, countries other than the US and China focused on Northern Europe activity, where embracing new technologies occurs first. This trend has been consistent year after year since I first published my blog in 2013 and has been evident in well over a million hits. 

     2024 Activity by Country Other Than the US & China







Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Strategic Situation Analysis with SWOT

While no organization or individual can predict the future, organizations that aren’t ready for the future will be disadvantaged. I’ve asked one of my long-time associates to be a guest blogger on a topic that plays well to be prepared for the future. Frank Kowalkowski, the President of Knowledge Consultants, Inc. (see bio below), gives us a quick overview, delivering an excellent approach to being ready for the future by leveraging intelligent SWOTs. 

Summary – Enabling Situation Analysis/SWOT with Analytics

Today’s external environment is a considerable challenge in developing strategic foresight. How can we anticipate the volatile state of the landscape and separate out the stable part? Where do our opportunities lie for successful continuity, not just survival. What short-term and long-term issues lurk that may prevent achieving organizational goals? What should you act on, and what should you start watching? So many questions going forward and so little insight. Situation Analysis and SWT were designed to assist in assessing this condition. However, it has been the victim of aging usefulness.

Let us review for a moment. The goal of a strategic management effort is to develop a viable strategic foresight perspective for the organization. Situation analysis drives that foresight. Strategic change may include direction that ranges from simple changes to radical disruptive changes, depending on the stage of the organization's performance and the interests of management and related parties. The degree of change impacts the scope of the strategy effort, especially the effort for situation analysis.

Situation analysis with SWOT is used on a macro-strategic (enterprise-wide) basis or on a micro-scale applied to the tactical or operational part of the organization. SWOT analysis can also be applied to the study of competitors.

Why make changes to how Situation Analysis is done?

Major business modeling experts such as Michael Porter, Henry Mintzberg, and others have identified several reasons for concern and the need to upgrade to Situation Analysis with SWOT (SA/SWOT). Here is a summary of the issues for improving SA/SWOT value and quality:

  1. The lack of rigor such as ‘forward looking’ analytics and lack of extended analytics to business models has left the result incomplete.
  2. There is a lack of well-defined steps in applying SA to the strategy process. The approach varies with whoever is doing the analysis. There are as many variations as there are consulting firms.
  3. The current SA/SWOT method is labor-intensive, human-intensive research taking up at least 50% of the effort.
  4. The analytics that exist are historical in nature, and many predictive analytics are difficult to use. Few tools for strategic and tactical business analysis exist. Those have limited and complex analytic algorithms that discourage rigor in analysis.

Resolving each of these points

1. Forward-looking analytics

The history-based approach works but has limitations. History is extended into the future through various estimating techniques such as trumpet diagrams, linear trend analysis, and so on.

What is needed is the simplification of forward-looking decision algorithms that relate to capturing expected subjective conjectures and preferences through criteria evaluation. Recent advances in analytics using newer algorithms, Gen AI, and neural net AI techniques have made the SA/SWOT analysis steps more productive and of better quality.

On the left, you have a landscape category, in this case, Key Economic Factors. This is linked to Technology Trends, which in turn is linked to Social Trends, and last is the target, Business Strategies. Of course, the strategies you start with are the ones you have today, but you will also do this for future strategic foresight when you finally have that. The result is an assessment of a gap analysis for benefit and value determination if desired.

The first time you do this, it is usually a two-cycle effort: first, assess the impact on today’s strategies, which helps explain what is going on, and second, assess the impact on future direction. At the end of the day, you want to know the impact of the external landscape on the set of strategies for the next time. A path-to-point diagram such as the one below in Figure 1 helps expose the relationships needed to make it happen.
 


                                                                      Figure 1

This diagram can be extended beyond strategy to include capabilities (a tactical interest), Processes, Applications, and, eventually, Databases (an operational interest). At the end of the day, you want to know the impact of the external landscape on the set of strategies for the next time. A path-to-point diagram such as the one above in Figure 1 helps expose the relationships needed to make it happen. This type of analysis also provides the insight needed for strategic alignment with operations.

2. Using well-defined stages of SA/SWOT

Historically, each step of situation analysis and strategic planning has evolved into its own way of analysis with no underlying analytics framework. The linkage between steps is dependent on the human effort of intuitive alignment. Well-defined workflows using analytic agents that focus on analytic ensembles as agents are available today to make applying the analytics by managers and business strategic and tactical analysts simpler.

Situation insight makes visible the potential future direction the organization will take. It is part of the overall strategy process and critical to identifying the suite of strategies an organization should pursue. The net result of all this is to get a higher percentage of success in assessing direction. There are four stages of analysis to consider for SA/SWOT:

Figure 2 below shows the relationship of the four stages:



                                                                          Figure 2



Here is a brief comment on each stage:

Stage 1—External Environment—Landscape Analysis (e.g., categories like PESTLE, Industry Factors, World Economic Forum assessment, and so on as added categories) The output is a suite of externally ranked category elements of interest to the organization.

Stage 2 – Internal Environment – Strategic/Tactical/ Operational Macro views focusing on Existing Strategic categories (e.g., existing strategies, capabilities, initiatives, etc.) The output is ranked and related categories regarding the current strategic and tactical structure.

Stage 3 - SWOT Quadrant Mapping and Analysis, simple quadrant analysis, and External/Internal comparative integrated quadrant analysis. The output is a set of quadrant contents that combine the external and internal views.

Stage 4 – Strategy Formulation linkage, namely the Scenario and Forecast Strategy Development. The output from this stage is the set of strategies for the next period, along with scenarios and drivers that explain the strategy.

These four stages are typical situation analyses that lead to the rest of the strategic planning processes in many organizations.
 
3. Reducing the labor burden in SA/SWOT

Situation Analysis with SWOT is, by nature, a human endeavor supplemented by methods and support tools. The key to efficient and effective improvements in Situation Analysis is AI-enabled stages, especially the Landscape Assessment and SWOT parts.

The insight and analysis efficiency gained using automated analytics, such as Gen AI search tools, text generation for scenarios, and subjective Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) analytics, is significant. In Landscape and SWOT research, the gain is as much as a 75% improvement in time and cost.
 
4. Improving the analytics


Avoid ‘the devil is in the details’ efforts and focus on reducing complexity to focus on strategic and tactical issues. There are several key improvements in achieving the situation analysis goal through applying current advances in analytics.

The analytic-based method described here resolves many of the objections to the current approach. The theme here is ‘let technology do the legwork.’ Technology used here, especially AI-based technology, augments human insight for strategy development. This more rigorous approach resolves the concerns of experts in business modeling and strategy. The core idea is to have AI be the assistant to the manager/analyst doing the analysis.

Recent articles claim improvements of 25 to 35 % in MCDM analysis by using hybrid subject/objective analytics.

The list of suggested solutions below provides a starting point for analytics improvement.

Comments by Business Modeling Experts

Here are three of the several expert comments on issues with SWOT:

Michael Porter: Lack of analytical rigor. According to Porter, SWOT analysis does not account for the competitive forces in an industry.

Henry Mintzberg: SWOT analysis oversimplifies strategic planning by categorizing factors into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. This leads to a narrow view of strategic issues and might result in missed opportunities or underestimated threats.

Kim Warren: SWOT analysis often lacks a clear link to organizational performance and decision-making. This leads to vague, and generic statements that do not drive specific actions or improvements.

Some Analytic Solutions that Address Weaknesses in SWOT analysis

Here are the five most significant considerations the updated SWOT approach has regarding analytics:
  • Use Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Concepts. Applying MCDM analytic criteria to analyze the landscape categories and the 4 SWOT quadrants for element significance. This provides accounting for the influence of several preferences not just one or two plus it can uncover accelerators and barriers to success.
  • Using multiple ranking approaches (composite ranking, correlation matrices, and Neural Nets) to confirm the validity of ranks and significance of relationships. This prevents domination by one analytic algorithm.
  • Use context analysis and DNA algorithms to assess and uncover hidden or significant relationships that offer valuable strategic insight.
  • Using labor savings to expand the perspectives of the landscape using added categories reflecting the current larger and industry-specific scope today of external impacts
  • Provide scenario generation and strategic implications through AI tools that utilize the results of insights gained from SWOT quadrant analytics.

For further information contact:




For training, Consulting, and SWOT Demos, contact Frank Kowalkowski at kci_frank@knowledgebiz.com

For more information on the software used, contact www.WIZSM.io


BIO:

Frank Kowalkowski is President of Knowledge Consultants, Inc., a firm focusing on business performance, business analysis, data science, business intelligence, artificial intelligence, and statistical techniques across industries. More recently, Frank has been involved in conducting workshops, professional training sessions, and assessments of business structures and transformation, data science, analytics for process management efforts. He is the author of a 1996 book on Enterprise Analysis. His most recent publications are a featured chapter in the business book Digital Transformation with BPM. His chapter is titled “Improve, Automate, Digitize.” he also has a chapter in the business architecture book titled Business and Dynamic Change, and a chapter on semantic process analytics in the book Passports to Success in BPM, and most recently, a key chapter titled Intelligent Automation and Intelligent Analytics in the 2020 book Intelligent Automation.



Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Art for the 3rd Quarter 2024

 Gen AI created all of the art for the third quarter. I retrofitted my first album, Amazing Journey, with images to create art associated with each song. I did this for my second album, Ready or Not (click here), so it was time to equalize the whole music catalog. I expect to work on the Gen AI videos in the fourth quarter while new songs are in the hopper for 2025 to be released as singles if all goes well. While hand-created art will not be abandoned by me, I enjoy guiding AI to create images to match the themes of my songs. You can listen to my songs on popular streaming services right now. I'm up to 172K streams on Spotify and have qualified for "Discovery Mode" on Spotify for almost the whole catalog. Currently, my songs are on over a dozen playlists. I hope you like the music and the images. 

 


                                  Love and Acceptance


                                 Nobody Knows Me 


                                 I See Your Heart 


                                 Perfect Love


                                 Coming Up Sevens


                                 Siren Song 


                                 The Next Time I See You 

Monday, October 21, 2024

What Have Folks Been Reading in the 3Q 2024?

First, I'm pumped that the blog activity surpassed 1M hits with unwanted comments cleaned from vendors trying to leverage my posts. Unsurprisingly, AI was the most exciting topic of interest in the last months, as shown in the activity by the topic graphic below. The next was a tie for second, with Digital and Customer Journey topics gaining attention. Collaboration is still an important topic according to my audience, but Process is still hanging in there after two decades past prime attention. Also below is a graph depicting activity by country over and above the US and China, which dominate the activity. See below.





Tuesday, September 17, 2024

AI Must Increase Productivity or Else

The theme for the coming years will be a significant increase in productivity. According to my favorite definition from a Google search, “Productivity is a measure of performance that compares the output of a product with the input, or resources, required to produce it. The input may be labor, equipment, or money.”




AI must be a key driver to not only innovation but also a way to increase baseline productivity measures. It is a must at the macro level, by country and industry, and at the micro level, with AI-enabled projects. This is true for all on a personal basis and an organizational basis. It is not a zero-sum game where organizations win, and individuals lose. It balances organizational outcomes gained with personal satisfaction without time synchs forced on individuals inside or outside an organization. The good news is that we have high productivity rates in mature economies. See the GDP Per Hour Worked by Region in Figure 1. The bad news is that the productivity increase rate is not what it could be, averaging only a meager 2.1 percent on average since 1947 and a shallow level of 1.6 percent recently. See Productivity Change Rates by period in Figure 2.



                                          Figure 1 GDP Per Hour Worked by Region


The additional good news is that AI is capable and is growing in its influence and impact by the minute. As long as AI is applied in a goal-driven fashion governed by reasonable boundaries, the possibilities are endless. The individuals who control these goals and constraints will lead the way to greater productivity. We can’t sit still and must apply AI aggressively on a local basis, constantly looking to the global impact incrementally. Every country can benefit from AI and potentially leap up in productivity.





                                      Figure 2 Productivity Change Rates by Time Period

Net; Net:

AI has the potential to decrease the hours worked for all of us. An accurate "more with less" enabled by AI. This is true for those who complete repetitive simple tasks, those who make decisions at the tactical level for optimization of work while taking great care of customer, employee, and partner journeys, and those who set strategy or create response scenarios in an ever-changing set of markets, industries, regions, and legal frameworks. While AI is exciting in its potential for productivity, it carries the fear of change and control. Let’s manage this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity AI gives us. This is the first post in a series on the productivity and application of AI. Watch this space.

Monday, July 8, 2024

What Have People Been Reading in the 2nd Quarter 2024?

 Again, AI and Customer Journey topics dominated the activity. However, Results-oriented communications /collaboration is rising fast as a topic of interest. Surprisingly, Processes made the leaderboard for the first time in a while. 

                                        Blog hits in the 2nd Quarter of 2024 



                                                Offshore Activity in the 2nd Quarter 2024





Wednesday, May 29, 2024

AI: For Good or Evil?

AI has significant momentum now and contributes positively to businesses and everyday life. Today, industry and government leaders warn of the dangers of unbridled AI. So, let's peel back the onion on AI for Good and AI for Evil. Next, let's see what it takes to steer AI positively with as few side effects as possible. We all know all advancements come with good and bad effects. Look at the automobile, for instance. Autos take us to many places, but driving them unsafely without following the rules of the road leads to injury and even death.



AI Brings Good for Many Industries.

· Healthcare uses AI for preventive medicine, advanced diagnosis, personalized treatment plans, and drug discovery.

· Education uses AI for lifelong learning, adapting to changing career changes, shifting to new opportunities, and personal interests with virtual tutors and dynamic personalization.

· Transportation uses AI to optimize the planning and operation of smart cities, support various levels of autonomous vehicles, and optimize eco outcomes within the need for goal-directed efficiencies.

· Finance uses AI for investment management, wealth management, and fraud detection.

· Customer Service uses AI for hyper-personalization, sentiment analysis, and virtual assistants.

· Agriculture uses AI for sustainable farming by optimizing resource uses, automated or not, reducing waste, developing crops for climate change, and practicing sustainable soil management.

· Environmental Protection uses AI to design and implement effective climate change mitigation strategies, biodiversity monitoring, and resource management.

· Manufacturing uses AI in smart factories for optimization, efficient supply chains, and innovative material discovery.

· Entertainment uses AI for immersive experiences, innovative content creation, and audience engagement.

· Accessibility uses AI for inclusive design, enhanced communication across language barriers, and assistive technologies for the less capable.


AI Brings Good for Businesses

Businesses, in general, are using AI for enhanced decision-making in both a proactive and reactive manner. They are Improving the customer experience with AI while increasing their operational efficiency in a balanced fashion with AI. Marketing and sales are expanding their reach through better targeting and predictive forecasting. Businesses are creating new products and services with AI while better supporting their existing portfolio of products and services. AI helps with human resources with better engagement and automated recruitment. AI helps with fraud detection, compliance, and speedier governance. Businesses leverage AI for better expense management and investment strategies. Organizations can predict customer churn and measure customer sentiment in real time. Speaking of real-time, threat detection and vulnerability management can take advantage of AI. Businesses can increase their productivity, revenue, and costs while leading in sustainability through resource optimization and sustainability. Companies can take great advantage of various types of AI.

AI Brings Good for the Consumer

Consumers are experiencing many benefits of AI today, and AI is leading to even more benefits. Personalization provides tailored recommendations, customized voice/language engagement, and satisfaction with 24/7 availability and quick responses to overall needs, not just transactions. The shopping experience is improving with virtual try-ons and augmented/enhanced reality. Health assistants with links to telemedicine will help with preliminary notice of symptoms and diagnosis. Financial advice will be provided to optimize customer goals, both long and short-term. Recommendations for targets in the tsunami of content emerging to help the viewing/listening experiences. Home management and security will benefit from AI as well. Consumers will benefit from sustainability suggestions as well. Civic engagement, cultural preservation, and mental well-being are also benefits.

It's hard to argue that AI is not used for good and that the expectations for more AI benefits are sky-high. Yet, at the same time, some horror is dribbling from under AI. There are bad actors out there trying to do evil with AI. Without all the rules of the AI road laid out yet, there is an opportunity for these bad actors. Some individuals use AI to gain advantage, leverage, and illegal financial gain. Some use AI to subvert power, weaponizing AI for offensive purposes.

AI Enables Bad Actors

· An early evil use of AI is for cyberattacks that target critical infrastructure, financial systems, or government systems for monetary gain, espionage, or sabotage.

· AI can bring social engineering and manipulation by using social engineering techniques to manipulate individuals, influence public opinions, and spread misinformation for financial or ideological gains.

· AI can perform mass surveillance, tracking individual movements, communications, and activities without their knowledge. AI can infringe on privacy rights and civil liberties.

· AI can power autonomous weapons and other forms of lethal weapon systems without human intervention. Drones or robotic soldiers are examples of weapons that could act alone or swarm to escalate conflicts or undermine international stability and security.

· AI can be used by adversaries, including cybercriminals, state actors, and terrorist organizations, to create a movement against established society.

· AI can inadvertently exhibit unintended behaviors or consequences that manifest as errors, biases, or impacts on individuals, organizations, or society at large.

· AI can be harnessed to perform financial crimes and fraud toward individuals or organizations.

· AI can be used to create deepfakes and misinformation to gain financial advantage or take down the reputations of individuals or organizations.

· AI can affect biases and exacerbate inequalities by targeting individuals or groups to displace people from jobs or make it hard to thrive.

· In the worst-case scenario, AI could pose existential risks to humanity if misused or developed with inadequate safeguards.

AI Enables Power Plays

Geopolitical competition will drive rivalries among nations, pushing them to vie for dominance and try to leverage AI for innovation for economic gain and technological and military advantages. While not all this is bad, it can be taken to extremes, leading to new global pressure points and chess matches. Some of it could lead to arms proliferation and a new arms race. The amount of cyberwarfare and spying is bound to increase. The real risk is the need for clear regulations, guidelines, and treaties. There is likely to be a blurring of AI for military and civilian uses that will also muddy the mix. There is also a real danger of a supervillain or group leveraging AI to extort or unduly influence others.

Net; Net:

The fear of Evil AI will not drown out Good AI for now. The control of autonomous weapons, cyber warfare, aggressive intelligence, and psychological operations should be planned for the future. Establishing international regulations, norms, and treaties is the best way forward. Agreeing on what ethical AI development is and monitoring it with transparency. A move towards more “human-in-the-loop” for lethal actions is needed. Establishing robust oversight and governance and promoting peace and diplomacy with AI can work for us. The proactive measures of establishing robust international regulations, enforcing ethical guidelines, promoting transparency, and fostering a culture of peace and diplomacy can mitigate risks and bad behavior from bad actors. The alternative is mutually assured destruction, as we have with nuclear powers.

Additional Reading:

Definition of AI










Tuesday, May 7, 2024

When AI Goes Inside Out

AI is progressing well in many industries, assisting people or independently completing tasks. These uses of AI are often operational and can usually be embedded in business processes, software, or devices. We all, except for Luddites, expect the continued success of AI on focused tasks at the operational level. In fact, AI is progressing so well that it is catching up with humans for specific skills and combinations of skills (see Figure 1) from Stamford University below. It all sounds good, but the story could be different as AI ventures out to handle tactical management and executive strategy. AI will break out of processes and devices to combine various types of AI to assist and eventually automatically manage critical adjustments for businesses. It will happen as AI bootstraps success, leaving us with new challenges and driving us into AI fear zones. It is exciting and points to higher benefit levels for AI, but is this a Pandora’s Box?


Sample AI Operational Successes

· Automated Data Analysis: AI algorithms can analyze large volumes of data or content of various types to extract valuable insights and trends, enabling businesses to make data-driven decisions more efficiently.

· Process Automation: AI-powered robotic process automation (Smart RPA) can automate repetitive tasks such as data entry, invoice processing, and customer support inquiries, freeing up employees to focus on higher-value activities.

· Predictive Maintenance: AI can predict equipment failures by analyzing sensor data and historical maintenance records. It enables businesses to schedule maintenance proactively to minimize downtime.

· Dynamic Pricing: AI algorithms: AI algorithms can analyze market conditions, competitor pricing, and customer behavior to optimize pricing dynamically, maximizing revenue and profitability.

· Inventory Management: AI can optimize inventory levels by forecasting demand, identifying slow-moving items, automating replenishment processes, and reducing stockouts and excess inventory costs.

· Customer Service Enhancements: AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants can handle customer inquiries, provide personalized recommendations, and assist with problem-solving, improving the overall customer experience.

· Fraud Detection: AI algorithms can detect fraudulent activities, such as payment fraud, identity theft, and account takeover, by analyzing patterns and anomalies in transaction data, reducing losses and risk.


We all know that AI is progressing steadily towards an even brighter future for business applicability. AI is picking up skills fast and will equal human capabilities in any individual skill. See Figure 1 for a sample set of skills that AI is progressing.



                                            Figure 1 AI Skill Levels Over Time

This progress is impressive, and when combined with algorithms, goals, and boundaries, AI will go broader, deeper, more complicated, more complex, and more independent. AI will go from task to function while taking on tactics and strategy. Instead of just inside known and established processes, AI will break and challenge coordination and management tasks at the tactical level, eventually working its way into shaping strategy. Thereby putting AI in a position to respond to situations as AI deals well with emergence (complexity); this is an inside-out moment for AI that will start in the coming months and years. I expect the "inside out" trend to begin with processes, as AI can quickly move from tasks to management. The inside-out processes will likely start with monitoring, leading to notification and then to suggestions for action. Eventually, AI will take action with or without permission. 

The transition of AI from inside operational processes to outside processes typically involves the evolution of AI applications from narrow, task-specific implementations to broader, tactical, or strategic capabilities that impact various aspects of the business that cross traditional organizational boundaries. It includes the following:


· Scaling AI Across the Organization

· Integrating with Enterprise Systems

· Cross-Functional Collaboration

· Strategic Alignment and Executive Sponsorship

· Data Governance and Quality Assurance

· Continuous Learning and Improvement

· Partnerships and Ecosystem Collaboration

AI at the Tactical Level

At the tactical level, AI can contribute to essential cross-functional efforts and processes that require constant monitoring and adjustments that are tied to goals (static or emergent). Examples include:

· Customer Relationship Management: Besides the usual inquiry aid, AI can segment customers and proactively predict customer churn.

· Sales and Marketing: AI can drive better lead identification and suggest products/services to those leads. By analyzing activity, AI can target offers individually or with campaigns.

· Supply Chain Management: AI can forecast demand and market trends and tune logistics optimization dynamically while optimizing transportation costs.

· Operations and Manufacturing: AI can optimize production schedules, suggest improvements, and manage energy efficiency.

· Human Resources: AI can streamline recruitment and analyze employee performance for career development.

AI at the Strategic Level

At the strategic level, AI can contribute to the organization's executive level as it monitors the attainment of conflicting goals while maintaining profitability and reputation as a good community member locally and a great place to work while appealing for future investment. It is where emerging conditions must be monitored and intercepted and, where appropriate, changes. AI can start with being a sentinel, but bigger toles may be possible regarding the freedom to act independently. Examples include:

· Market Analysis and Competitive Intelligence: AI algorithms can analyze vast amounts of data from diverse resources to provide insights into market dynamics while identifying opportunities and threats from the competition.

· Forecasting and Planning: AI-powered predictive analytics can forecast future trends, demand patterns, and potential business outcomes, which might mean adjusting capital and resource allocation, inventory management, and production/service planning to optimize efficiency and reduce risk.

· Risk Management and Mitigation: AI can analyze various event patterns and data to identify potential risks and vulnerabilities, such as fraud, cybersecurity threats, and market fluctuations. It allows for proactive risk mitigation and safeguarded assets.

· Strategic Decisions: While AI might not make the decisions initially, AI-powered decision support systems can simulate various scenarios and the likelihood of them happening and have a plan of action. Whether it is a new market or investment, AI can help.

· Product and Service Innovation: AI technologies can be baked into offerings to create new products and services. Examples include computer vision, machine learning, voice-driven sentiment analysis, and intelligent service bots.

Net; Net:

AI will be going inside out and will have more influence on business outcomes at our organizations' operational, tactical, and strategic levels. The question is, what level of freedom will AI be given to act independently, especially if we get into an AI arms race in individual industries or between countries with very different value systems? It is inevitable unless AI has some overall meltdown. I have yet to see AI taking over from humans at the highest level of risk. The question for me is, "Will AI only be used for GOOD once it is given freedom, or Will it also be used for EVIL?" That is a topic for another day. AI will be used successfully as it has proven helpful in many use cases, with more coming. Will the winds of change rip the inside-out umbrella of AI out of our hands?

Monday, April 8, 2024

What Have People Been Reading in the 1st Quarter 2024?

 AI and Customer Journey topics will continue to gain momentum in 2024, and it is no surprise that AI topics are racing forward, led by Generative AI. What is surprising is the interest in the basics of Digital Transformation and Results-oriented Communications, aka goal-directed collaboration. There is the usual hunger for trends in business and technology in the new year as people orient themselves and recalibrate goals. There is consistent demand for Digitial Business Platforms (DBP). Another new trend is the re-emergence of old topics combined with AI, including Business Processes and RPA. There was quite a mixture of issues and a significant increase in reading momentum. Most of the increase comes from the U.S., Nordic Countries, and Asia.




Thursday, April 4, 2024

Music Helps with Life

“Ready or Not” is the name of my second album, which is about being a better human being, which we all struggle with on a daily basis. Ethan Foxx is my co-writer/creative producer/guitar/drums, and Jimmy (CAT) Caterine, our creative engineer and lead guitarist, are my mentors on my musical journey. Our team was assisted by Pete Crane, with great bass playing. Excellent strings by Cathie King. Significant keyboard boosts and a terrific trumpet solo from Eric Barker. A lovely harmonica outro by Robert Vincent. A steaming blues lead guitar and solo by the talented Don Supplee. Lead vocals by me. We only hope you enjoy the music, so take some time to listen to your favorite streaming source or listen to a quick summary by clicking here







So far, the most popular songs are Forgive, Mercy Me, and Kinder.  If you want to hear my granddaughter sing, go for Cry for Creation. If you want something different, listen to Restoration. If you're going to understand my attitude toward life, try Thankful Now. 

Related Gen AI Music Videos:




Sunday, March 17, 2024

Operationalize AI Effectively with Processes

AI and processes go together very well, and the risk of trying AI in processes is pretty low, as process resources can all benefit from being more competent and reacting faster to changing conditions. AI is typically aimed at traditional/everyday processes. Still, organizations are also looking at more game-changing impacts related to new products where innovative business models can be trialed with processes and data. AI also aims to address emerging business changes that show new opportunities and threats. It’s not just pure automation and optimization, though there continue to be benefit pools there. Processes are often the basis of organizational actions that cross internal and external boundaries. These processes often employ resources that could benefit from AI’s assistance, especially where knowledge, decision-making, and agile optimization based on changing or emerging goals are required. I was asked to write a white paper on operationalizing AI in and around processes. This paper is available for free from a processes vendor called Agilepoint. 






There are a number of blog posts on AI here, as well as processes. here are some exciting posts on AI

AI Posts




Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Top 5 Technology Trends for 2024


Last week, I published the Top 5 Business Trends for 2024 (click here), and this week, I narrowed down several technology trends to my top 5 that organizations need to start responding to intensely in 2024.

Harnessing Usable AI

Most organizations will probably have some form of the many types of AI in progress. Progress could range from experimentation to production-enabled and active in several business and technology domains. Since organizations do not fear another AI Winter because of broad-based data-driven successes, they are looking to take advantage of various kinds of AI (click here for AI Tributaries and Types for 2024). Significant efforts in and around Natural Language Processing (NLP) will allow for human understanding and appropriate responses like generating human-like interfaces in chatbots and language translation services, for example. There will be more virtual assistants that will supercharge customers and employees to be more effective even beyond their inherent knowledge and skill levels. It will expand AI to voice, image, and video analysis to create a more inclusive context for decisions and actions for carbon-based participants and robotic assistants. There will be an emphasis on emotion recognition to deal with the human factors of doing business. This new capability and power will need to be protected, so intelligent cybersecurity will get a boost to detect and prevent threats leveraging AI. Expect organizations to use AI until governance issues become the focus.




Leveraging Intelligent Customer Experiences and Processes/Applications

Organizations will likely start switching from flow-directed approaches to goal-directed ones where the flow is based on the changing goals of a customer journey or process. Savvy organizations will include their goals with the goals of customers, partners, and employees in the goal-directed approaches and balance seemingly conflicting objectives in a balanced approach. Personalization will now consider goals and measure feedback through real-time observation and analysis. Of course, better user experiences and omni-channel experiences will continue as table stakes, but more will be demanded. User-centered design employing more gamification components will play a role as AI and algorithms will expand their reach to customers, employees, and partners to advance Customer Relationship Management (CRM). Human/ tech collaboration will get a fresh look, including new forms of augmented reality over time. Continuous improvement and aggressive automation will continue in times of stability; however, changing conditions may unhinge current optimization patterns. Intelligence will be used to adapt processes and user experiences more acceleratedly. Organizations will leverage predictive methods and more aggressive scenario management and monitoring. It will be a necessity with supply chain shifts and optimization particularly.

Moving to Convergent Business and Technology Platforms

While individual technology stacks bring benefits, costs, and challenges, organizations will eagerly watch for the convergence of focused functionality into platforms that more easily integrate technology functions to enable faster and cheaper business results. Desire will force broader technology options at a more affordable cost and potential mergers and buyouts. Convergence will create aggregated specialty platforms and generalized digital business platforms. The effect is fewer vendors to manage for organizations and more integrated business/technical functionality. Examples include generalized Digital Business Platforms (DBP), Business Application/Package Platforms, Sales/Customer Platforms, Process Platforms, Collaboration Platforms, Data Science/Analytic Platforms, Automation Platforms, Lowcode Platforms, Cloud Platforms, Data Mesh Platforms, and Security Platforms. For a quick overview of the players, click here. I expect AI platforms to emerge as success is experienced and integration becomes necessary.

Building on Intelligent Infrastructure

As all business-driven intelligence and agility become a competitive weapon, the need for intelligent infrastructure will emerge quickly. It means that the infrastructure players that leverage AI and analytics in either a reactive or proactive manner will flourish. It will create a race to intelligence under the covers of processes, systems, and applications. Edge computing and IoT integration are perfect examples of where putting intelligence at the edge or even outside of a business process will be necessary. First, it will be monitored soon after there will be recognition of the need for decisions close to the edge and intelligent actions to deal with the changing conditions. Eventually, AI-driven intelligent bots or agents will be brokering response patterns at the edge. Examples of success today would include Smart Cities infrastructure. Digital twins will flourish in intelligent infrastructure, leveraging clever hybrid and multi-cloud along with smart data meshes. All of this will require smart security that is blockchain-enabled. In the future, quantum computing exploration will keep a watchful eye on the swarms of agile AI bots responding to infrastructure and business needs.

Living with Governed Leverage with Sustainability

Like it or not, organizations will have to balance their business results with the trail of impact their business activities create. There will be the emergence of renewable energy integration where it makes sense. Recycling or recreation will be more emphasized in 2024, along with eco-friendly packaging solutions. Smart buildings that leverage AI for energy efficiency optimize energy consumption in many aspects of an organization's activities. Remote work will play a role in the delicate balance of progress and preservation. Technology will be essential in an organization's ability to measure, monitor, and reduce its carbon footprint over its complete operation as and its supply chain. Water management is becoming a vital resource to monitor and optimize, leveraging tech and advanced waste management technology and techniques.

Monday, February 19, 2024

Top 5 Business Trends for 2024

Adapting to Dynamic Business Conditions

The first trend is around businesses staying dynamically adaptive to change. Organizations must go beyond scenario planning exercises that sit on the shelf. While the planning exercises are proactive and sound, they also allow businesses to develop strategies for the various likely and unlikely scenarios. Savvy organizations will test the most likely scenarios, making an organization better prepared to adapt when change occurs. This means organizations must cultivate a culture of innovation that builds on leveraging agile methodologies and employee training/development. Cross-functional teams with individuals who embrace technologies by staying abreast of technological advancements will often develop solutions that support executive goals within alternative scenarios. Strategic partners will also help craft solutional alternatives, including backup partnerships. Remember that organizations are moving to real-time data/event-driven decisions that will adjust processes and applications. Careful planning will help legacy platforms and packages remain in a changing business environment. Managing change is essential in a world that is speeding up to new rates of change. This is not a "one-and-done" exercise, as adaptability is an ongoing process that needs regular reassessment.


 
Augmenting Your Customers

While most organizations think they are creating and refining user-friendly interfaces, the reality from the customer side is another thing. Customers find most interfaces are designed from the inside out, leveraging existing software and support teams. While multi-channel engagement and responsive customer service go a long way to helping the customer reach your organization's goals, the reality is that the customer journey is rarely just about your transactional efficiency when working with them. Think about how organizations had outsourced the keystrokes to the customer and the dumb chatbots they must deal with daily. To add insult to injury, the surveys are designed to get managers their rewards, not the customers' perspective. It's time to think "outside-in" from the customer's goals through the interaction with your organization and its legacy systems. This will give organizations new insights to personalize the experience, including smarter chatbots that recognize feedback in voice or visual cues to include sentiment, both positive and negative responses, in real-time with transparency. Let's assist our customers in their journeys, not just optimize costs for organizational goals based only on transactions your organization controls. Let's shift from reactive cost containment to proactive customer satisfaction and loyalty.

Augmenting Your Employees and Partners

Often, employees become the shock absorbers between your organization and other constituents. This means that they deal with the lack of integration across internal stovepipes that live with conflicting internal and external goals. What employees want is better job satisfaction, recognition/rewards, flexible work arrangements, and mostly career growth opportunities. They are driven by the need to keep up with ever-rising costs in their life situations. While some of these needs can be managed with a change in management tactics, employees need help. They need a better collaborative work environment with effective communication that helps them develop and learn to augment their career growth. Why not remove their "dirty work" with automation and let them become more knowledgeable workers through AI augmentation and reward-driven employee empowerment? Giving employees more autonomy and decision-making authority within their roles or across stovepipes with collaboration with others and AI bots is desirable. The best suggestions for continuous improvement will come from happy employees. All organizations need the table stakes of wellness programs, diversity, and workplace perks, but augmentation for advancement will be a key theme as we advance.

Managing Elusive and Shifting Costs

While the traditional methods of cost analysis, budgeting, expense monitoring, and control will still deliver savings for organizations, there are additional issues to consider. Negotiating with suppliers and partners to seek better deals, discounts, and more favorable payment terms is a great place to find incremental savings. Some big numbers in process optimization employ cost-reduction technologies that are now smarter than those of previous generations. Process mining and AI monitoring are good places to find nuggets of opportunity. Organizations may have to invest in technologies that streamline processes, automate repetitive tasks, and improve efficiency. It can lead to long-term cost savings and increased productivity. Cross-training and workforce optimization can help leverage existing employees or bots to handle various types of tasks and responsibilities. It creates excellent leverage and flexibility when experiencing peaks that typically require hiring additional staff. Telecommuting and remote work is a great cost-cutting trend for office costs. Ensure cost cutting is not arbitrary to meet numbers only to hurt long-term trends. Often, overzealous cost-cutting on minutia sometimes backfires with unexpected behaviors.

Providing Secure Digital Commerce

Ensuring secure digital commerce is crucial to protecting your business and customers from potential security threats. While customer education on best security practices, adherence to payment standards, and continuous fraud detection in real-time to mitigate suspicious activity leveraging machine learning are table stakes, there are additional efforts to take for organizations. Two-factor authentication is a must for user accounts. It adds a layer of security by requiring users to verify their identity. Regular backups of critical data combined with comprehensive data plans are essential in the event of a security incident. Encryption of all stored data protects data in case of a breach. Organizations are encouraged to choose secure hosting providers and cloud services that prioritize data security. Hosting environments should have robust security measures, including firewalls, intrusion, and detections. All your infrastructure and business software needs to be updated by patching and updating your systems. Regular software updates can close vulnerabilities and protect against known security threats. Above all, conduct regular security audits and vulnerability assessments of your e-commerce platform. Identify and address potential weaknesses in your systems to stay ahead of emerging threats. Remember that this is a war with bad actors.