Showing posts with label big data. Show all posts
Showing posts with label big data. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Where is Agentic AI Headed?

Agentic AI is gathering steam and is getting headlines now. While AI Agents aren’t as frightening as Artificial General Intelligence, swarming Agents can get scary if not guided by clear, focused, and beneficial goals bounded by guardrails. Hopefully, humankind will be taken into account when setting these goals and guardrails. Keep in mind that previously siloed types of AI will be swept into these two powerful categories. See the types of contributing AI by clicking here. Let’s dive into the future of Agentic AI, but first, let’s get some definitions down for clarity. I let AI, (*MS Copilot 365,) itself create the two definitions below:


     Agentic AI is like schools of fish looking for feeding grounds

Definition of Agentic AI *

Agentic AI refers to artificial intelligence systems that possess the ability to act autonomously and make decisions based on their own goals, preferences, or objectives. Unlike traditional AI, which typically follows predefined rules or responds directly to user input, agentic AI can initiate actions, adapt its behavior, and pursue complex tasks without constant human oversight. This type of AI often features advanced reasoning, planning, and self-motivation, making it capable of interacting with environments in a proactive and dynamic manner.

Definition of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) *

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) represents a type of AI that is capable of understanding, learning, and performing any intellectual task that a human being can. Unlike narrow AI, which specializes in specific applications, AGI demonstrates flexibility and adaptability across a broad spectrum of activities. AGI systems are designed to reason, solve problems, and transfer knowledge between different domains, closely mirroring the general cognitive abilities of humans.

Difference between Agentic AI and AGI

Agentic AI is usually autonomous and makes decisions based on defined or self-defined goals within a narrow band of specific problems. AGI can understand, learn, and apply knowledge in a wider range of contexts, leveraging broad cognitive capabilities like humans can. There is, however, a growth path for Agentic AI to learn and broaden its goal and context domains. Then the differences start to blur and overlap, creating some muddy opportunities and situations. This writing assumes that this growth path is where Agentic AI is headed



          Real Agentic AI Attained: How Will You Know?



Ultimately, Agentic AI will reach the pinnacle of seven dimensions that I will describe below. View this as an arch of attributes reaching over us as we pass through underneath, with the keystone dimension being independence. All these dimensions are growing in maturity and capability with Agentic AI, simultaneously yielding real Agentic AI.

Significance

This dimension represents the guiding goals for Agentic AI as it pursues results within solid boundaries and good governance. This may mean that the goals can blend and bend on context with emergence. Eventually, goals will be adapted dynamically.
 
Context of Interest

The goals, static or emerging, will point to context(s) and supporting data/knowledge of interests driven internally or externally. These contextual domains will contain resources for agentic AI to leverage and potentially update, affecting other agents, building patterns of repeatability.

Detection

Agents will need to be sensitive to change, even if looking for expected events or triggers. Planning agents will also look for patterns of interest and match them to pre-established or dynamic strategic planning analysis results, looking for opportunities to make change. If emergence is detected, these agents will report and represent the patterns of conditions, thus potentially shifting outcomes.

Independence

Agents will be given more and more freedom to respond to changes detected while operating in real-time. This is where the lines between AGI and AI agents will blur. They may cooperate with each other or override each other based on situations anticipated or not. Full freedom will be where there are significant learnings to be had. This is a real step of faith as process control fades.

Continuous

Agents will be in an always-on mode in a real-time fashion and cycling through an iterative improvement cycle based on instant optimization within guidelines, boundaries, and blended goals, looking for adaptation opportunities or threats.

Collaboration


Agentic AI will not only leverage legacy-wrapped processes, snippets, code, bots, and purpose-built agents, but also collaborate with agents that are specialized, physically embedded, or highly interdependent. A brokering or management agent may interact with other agents depending on goal compatibility.

Swarm Dynamics


AI agents will not only cooperate but swarm to create dynamic success patterns of operations, adapting to emergent conditions to stay within significant goal priorities. This will dynamically change the shape of agent executions to match any emergence detected.

Net; Net:

Are we there yet? Well, we have and will continue to see Agentic AI operating on the battlefield. While this is not my favorite topic, there are also successes in IOT device behavior and supply chain situations. General business applications are early because business is busy with chatbots, automation, algorithmic optimization, LLMs, and agent interactions with processes. Expect a change from inside-out change agents/bots being controlled by processes to real outside-in Agentic AI over the coming years. From process-driven to goal-driven with guidelines and guardrails. You don’t have to wait for quantum computing, but a big boost is coming from quantum.

Additional Reading:

Guiding Agentic AI with Goals

Goal Lifecycle

Goal Management

Attaining Stretch Goals

Agentic AI in Context

Context Savvy

Data Context

Big Data 

Agentic AI Detects


Business FOMO

Event Discovery

Dark Patterns

Agentic Independence

Agentic AI and Processes

Coordinated Autonomy

Agentic AI Management

Agents Making Decisions

Decisions Without Perfect Data

Agentic AI is Always on

Real-time Scenarios

Corporate Performance

Real Time is Essential

Collaboration with Agentic AI

Clearing Chaos

Results Coordinate Agents

Agents Represent Stakeholder Interests

Agentic AI Swarms

Agents Built to Swarm

Best Agents to Swarm

Swarming to Serve Customers



 

 

 

 

   





Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Up For a Grammy: Wohoo

 Good news for my team and me. We are officially balloted for the 68th Grammys. It's a key step, but now we need nominations. If you know anyone who is a Grammy voter, please consider recommending us. Wish us luck 

Click here for the Tune

Click here for the Video






Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Strategic Situation Analysis with SWOT

While no organization or individual can predict the future, organizations that aren’t ready for the future will be disadvantaged. I’ve asked one of my long-time associates to be a guest blogger on a topic that plays well to be prepared for the future. Frank Kowalkowski, the President of Knowledge Consultants, Inc. (see bio below), gives us a quick overview, delivering an excellent approach to being ready for the future by leveraging intelligent SWOTs. 

Summary – Enabling Situation Analysis/SWOT with Analytics

Today’s external environment is a considerable challenge in developing strategic foresight. How can we anticipate the volatile state of the landscape and separate out the stable part? Where do our opportunities lie for successful continuity, not just survival. What short-term and long-term issues lurk that may prevent achieving organizational goals? What should you act on, and what should you start watching? So many questions going forward and so little insight. Situation Analysis and SWT were designed to assist in assessing this condition. However, it has been the victim of aging usefulness.

Let us review for a moment. The goal of a strategic management effort is to develop a viable strategic foresight perspective for the organization. Situation analysis drives that foresight. Strategic change may include direction that ranges from simple changes to radical disruptive changes, depending on the stage of the organization's performance and the interests of management and related parties. The degree of change impacts the scope of the strategy effort, especially the effort for situation analysis.

Situation analysis with SWOT is used on a macro-strategic (enterprise-wide) basis or on a micro-scale applied to the tactical or operational part of the organization. SWOT analysis can also be applied to the study of competitors.

Why make changes to how Situation Analysis is done?

Major business modeling experts such as Michael Porter, Henry Mintzberg, and others have identified several reasons for concern and the need to upgrade to Situation Analysis with SWOT (SA/SWOT). Here is a summary of the issues for improving SA/SWOT value and quality:

  1. The lack of rigor such as ‘forward looking’ analytics and lack of extended analytics to business models has left the result incomplete.
  2. There is a lack of well-defined steps in applying SA to the strategy process. The approach varies with whoever is doing the analysis. There are as many variations as there are consulting firms.
  3. The current SA/SWOT method is labor-intensive, human-intensive research taking up at least 50% of the effort.
  4. The analytics that exist are historical in nature, and many predictive analytics are difficult to use. Few tools for strategic and tactical business analysis exist. Those have limited and complex analytic algorithms that discourage rigor in analysis.

Resolving each of these points

1. Forward-looking analytics

The history-based approach works but has limitations. History is extended into the future through various estimating techniques such as trumpet diagrams, linear trend analysis, and so on.

What is needed is the simplification of forward-looking decision algorithms that relate to capturing expected subjective conjectures and preferences through criteria evaluation. Recent advances in analytics using newer algorithms, Gen AI, and neural net AI techniques have made the SA/SWOT analysis steps more productive and of better quality.

On the left, you have a landscape category, in this case, Key Economic Factors. This is linked to Technology Trends, which in turn is linked to Social Trends, and last is the target, Business Strategies. Of course, the strategies you start with are the ones you have today, but you will also do this for future strategic foresight when you finally have that. The result is an assessment of a gap analysis for benefit and value determination if desired.

The first time you do this, it is usually a two-cycle effort: first, assess the impact on today’s strategies, which helps explain what is going on, and second, assess the impact on future direction. At the end of the day, you want to know the impact of the external landscape on the set of strategies for the next time. A path-to-point diagram such as the one below in Figure 1 helps expose the relationships needed to make it happen.
 


                                                                      Figure 1

This diagram can be extended beyond strategy to include capabilities (a tactical interest), Processes, Applications, and, eventually, Databases (an operational interest). At the end of the day, you want to know the impact of the external landscape on the set of strategies for the next time. A path-to-point diagram such as the one above in Figure 1 helps expose the relationships needed to make it happen. This type of analysis also provides the insight needed for strategic alignment with operations.

2. Using well-defined stages of SA/SWOT

Historically, each step of situation analysis and strategic planning has evolved into its own way of analysis with no underlying analytics framework. The linkage between steps is dependent on the human effort of intuitive alignment. Well-defined workflows using analytic agents that focus on analytic ensembles as agents are available today to make applying the analytics by managers and business strategic and tactical analysts simpler.

Situation insight makes visible the potential future direction the organization will take. It is part of the overall strategy process and critical to identifying the suite of strategies an organization should pursue. The net result of all this is to get a higher percentage of success in assessing direction. There are four stages of analysis to consider for SA/SWOT:

Figure 2 below shows the relationship of the four stages:



                                                                          Figure 2



Here is a brief comment on each stage:

Stage 1—External Environment—Landscape Analysis (e.g., categories like PESTLE, Industry Factors, World Economic Forum assessment, and so on as added categories) The output is a suite of externally ranked category elements of interest to the organization.

Stage 2 – Internal Environment – Strategic/Tactical/ Operational Macro views focusing on Existing Strategic categories (e.g., existing strategies, capabilities, initiatives, etc.) The output is ranked and related categories regarding the current strategic and tactical structure.

Stage 3 - SWOT Quadrant Mapping and Analysis, simple quadrant analysis, and External/Internal comparative integrated quadrant analysis. The output is a set of quadrant contents that combine the external and internal views.

Stage 4 – Strategy Formulation linkage, namely the Scenario and Forecast Strategy Development. The output from this stage is the set of strategies for the next period, along with scenarios and drivers that explain the strategy.

These four stages are typical situation analyses that lead to the rest of the strategic planning processes in many organizations.
 
3. Reducing the labor burden in SA/SWOT

Situation Analysis with SWOT is, by nature, a human endeavor supplemented by methods and support tools. The key to efficient and effective improvements in Situation Analysis is AI-enabled stages, especially the Landscape Assessment and SWOT parts.

The insight and analysis efficiency gained using automated analytics, such as Gen AI search tools, text generation for scenarios, and subjective Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) analytics, is significant. In Landscape and SWOT research, the gain is as much as a 75% improvement in time and cost.
 
4. Improving the analytics


Avoid ‘the devil is in the details’ efforts and focus on reducing complexity to focus on strategic and tactical issues. There are several key improvements in achieving the situation analysis goal through applying current advances in analytics.

The analytic-based method described here resolves many of the objections to the current approach. The theme here is ‘let technology do the legwork.’ Technology used here, especially AI-based technology, augments human insight for strategy development. This more rigorous approach resolves the concerns of experts in business modeling and strategy. The core idea is to have AI be the assistant to the manager/analyst doing the analysis.

Recent articles claim improvements of 25 to 35 % in MCDM analysis by using hybrid subject/objective analytics.

The list of suggested solutions below provides a starting point for analytics improvement.

Comments by Business Modeling Experts

Here are three of the several expert comments on issues with SWOT:

Michael Porter: Lack of analytical rigor. According to Porter, SWOT analysis does not account for the competitive forces in an industry.

Henry Mintzberg: SWOT analysis oversimplifies strategic planning by categorizing factors into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. This leads to a narrow view of strategic issues and might result in missed opportunities or underestimated threats.

Kim Warren: SWOT analysis often lacks a clear link to organizational performance and decision-making. This leads to vague, and generic statements that do not drive specific actions or improvements.

Some Analytic Solutions that Address Weaknesses in SWOT analysis

Here are the five most significant considerations the updated SWOT approach has regarding analytics:
  • Use Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Concepts. Applying MCDM analytic criteria to analyze the landscape categories and the 4 SWOT quadrants for element significance. This provides accounting for the influence of several preferences not just one or two plus it can uncover accelerators and barriers to success.
  • Using multiple ranking approaches (composite ranking, correlation matrices, and Neural Nets) to confirm the validity of ranks and significance of relationships. This prevents domination by one analytic algorithm.
  • Use context analysis and DNA algorithms to assess and uncover hidden or significant relationships that offer valuable strategic insight.
  • Using labor savings to expand the perspectives of the landscape using added categories reflecting the current larger and industry-specific scope today of external impacts
  • Provide scenario generation and strategic implications through AI tools that utilize the results of insights gained from SWOT quadrant analytics.

For further information contact:




For training, Consulting, and SWOT Demos, contact Frank Kowalkowski at kci_frank@knowledgebiz.com

For more information on the software used, contact www.WIZSM.io


BIO:

Frank Kowalkowski is President of Knowledge Consultants, Inc., a firm focusing on business performance, business analysis, data science, business intelligence, artificial intelligence, and statistical techniques across industries. More recently, Frank has been involved in conducting workshops, professional training sessions, and assessments of business structures and transformation, data science, analytics for process management efforts. He is the author of a 1996 book on Enterprise Analysis. His most recent publications are a featured chapter in the business book Digital Transformation with BPM. His chapter is titled “Improve, Automate, Digitize.” he also has a chapter in the business architecture book titled Business and Dynamic Change, and a chapter on semantic process analytics in the book Passports to Success in BPM, and most recently, a key chapter titled Intelligent Automation and Intelligent Analytics in the 2020 book Intelligent Automation.



Monday, October 7, 2024

AI Productivity Scorecard

Organizations face challenges in this AI era, including justifying each AI-enhanced project, measuring the results' effectiveness, and determining where they are on their overall AI productivity journey. While the big picture regarding the productivity race is evident at the national level, we are participating in increasing productivity to create gains in wages, better corporate profits, and raising living standards. See the big productivity picture by clicking here.

Why an AI Productivity Scorecard?

Organizations must understand where they are in unlocking AI's full benefits and increasing optimal productivity. While each organization's AI journey is unique, knowing where organizations are regarding their full AI productivity potential is essential. The scorecard can act as a radar screen to show where organizations or individuals are in terms of full AI potential. Last year, I published a rough guide for AI progress that identified three significant eras for AI. Click here for the three major eras. While it is helpful to know where an organization utilizes AI, a more complete and multi-dimensional productivity scorecard is needed to score how AI is being leveraged for optimal AI productivity over time. See Figure 1 for the AI Productivity Scorecard.



Figure 1 AI Productivity Scorecard

AI Productivity Scorecard Explained

Ideally, an organization has pushed its productivity to the uttermost limits of possibility; in reality, today, few organizations have pushed the boundaries to optimal because of the investment in methods, skills, and techniques that will take time to mature and prove themselves to be very effective. Most organizations start small and grow to complete potential over time. The scorecard aims to measure the progress on the path to optimal productivity. The early AI efforts will start at the center of the radar screen (spider diagram) and move to the edges over time. The scoring from 1 to 5 will be a judgment based on the state of AI at a specific point in time. Remember that AI will grow and evolve; the target could be a moving goal line. To that end, I described what to look for on each scale (vector). While it isn't perfect, it will give business leaders a relative way to measure progress over time. Remember that the scorecard can be used to measure projects and efforts first. However, aggregate efforts can be overlaid for an overall score for an organization, be it a division of the entire enterprise.

Work Impacts Scale: (AKA productivity in work complexity)

AI is excellent at automating repetitive tasks, and there are lots of organizational opportunities to automate totally, assist humans, or collaborate with other AI components. See the Top 20 AI Technologies for 2024 by clicking here. The challenge is having AI agents/bots assist with or make decisions independently within guardrails of goals and boundaries. In an AI-heavy usage scenario, AI makes plans without human collaboration and acts on them with measurement later. It is essential for instantaneous and emergent situations.

Paradigm Impacts Scale: (AKA productivity in problem difficulty)

AI is excellent at optimization as it makes fewer mistakes than its human counterparts. This means that AI clearly sees creating more optimal outcomes while goals shift faster. It assumes that the data it consumes is reasonable, but AI can sometimes sense out-of-whack data. AI can suggest alternative approaches and enhance existing optimizations with new paths or alternative solutions. It involves the creativity of a team of generative AI and humans, initially leading to more AI-driven approaches. In some cases, AI can develop breakthrough views and approaches that can be implanted and optimized on the fly.

Context Impacts: (AKA productivity in scale increase)

AI can help with personal productivity by simplifying each task with more advanced research. However, thought needs to be given to the overall journey a person as a customer, employee, or partner is on towards individual goals that may need to be incorporated with team or organizational goals. Teams often have different skills that must be collaborated on one work impact (explained above). AI assists these teams in incorporating stovepipe skills into optimal team results. Organizations leverage individuals and teams that may or may not have conflicting goals to create the overall organizational goals. AI is great at seeing the big picture and tuning individual and team goals to dynamically support overall organizational and cross-legal entity goals.

Problem Impacts: (AKA productivity in change)

Problems known and static are easy for AI to help with, but AI shines where change is evolving the goals and governance targets. AI is built for change and thrives where things grow on trend lines. There are, however, situations that evolve beyond plans and anticipated scenarios. These are known as emergent problems, which used to be quite rare but are happening more and more. AI deals with changing dynamically and recognizes new scenarios that may require replan and adjustment.

Speed Impacts: (AKA productivity in acceleration)

When work is done regularly, it is much more apt to be automated in a normal and preprogrammed way. As business change velocities increase, AI plays a role in adapting to itself in new ways. In fact, AI agents and bots are great at sitting on the edge and acting instantaneously to dynamic optimization and governance goals. The faster the need for response, the more AI will likely play a key role.

I'd now like to demonstrate the use of scorecards through three examples. The first example is AI in automation. The second example is holistic and dynamic management with AI, and finally, the third example is emergent optimization.

Example 1: AI & Automation (see Figure 2 AI For Automation Scorecard)

Automation is the usual spot where organizations will apply AI successfully. In the scorecard, I depicted a typical AI automation project or program. Typically, these kinds of efforts are aimed at intelligent actions that focus on optimizing results with known problems at expected frequencies but range from personal to organizational impacts. A few example use cases include:

  • Smart Chatbots,
  • Straight Through Processing
  • Knowledge Assists
  • Recruiting
  • Quality Inspections and Control



Figure 2: AI for Automation Scorecard

Example 2: AI & Management (see Figure 3 AI for Management Scorecard)

Dynamic management at the speed of change while detecting evolving conditions and suggesting tactical or strategic decisions is where AI shines. While the scope can vary from organizational to individual, the example below is aimed at the organizational level. A few example use cases are:

  • Supply Chain Management
  • Management Cockpits
  • Production Line Management
  • Warehouse Management
  • Logistics and Delivery Management



Figure 3: AI for Management Scorecard

Example 3: AI & Service Team Deployment (See Figure 4 for Service Teams)

Infrastructure servicing is a problem that must be optimized and enhanced over time. Let's use an above-ground pipeline that spans thousands of miles over various terrains, where drones fly over to look for issues and deploy service teams to remote areas when a potential leak is sensed. The drone images will be scoured for known problems and analyzed for evolving conditions, considering local weather, material decomposition, and position norm contexts. Speenorms because of the safety and environmental concerns; however, false alarms are incredibly costly.


 

Figure 4: AI for Service Teams Scorecard

Net; Net:

Progress in AI adoption and resulting productivity needs to be measured, even though scientific precision might not be attainable. Though I have searched long and hard for a way to measure AI's progress, I am still looking for something useful. To that end, I have cobbled together something that will help individuals and organizations have a rough measurement of progress toward greater productivity with AI. I hope this helps others. However, comments for improvement will be appreciated.

Additional Reading:





Tuesday, September 17, 2024

AI Must Increase Productivity or Else

The theme for the coming years will be a significant increase in productivity. According to my favorite definition from a Google search, “Productivity is a measure of performance that compares the output of a product with the input, or resources, required to produce it. The input may be labor, equipment, or money.”




AI must be a key driver to not only innovation but also a way to increase baseline productivity measures. It is a must at the macro level, by country and industry, and at the micro level, with AI-enabled projects. This is true for all on a personal basis and an organizational basis. It is not a zero-sum game where organizations win, and individuals lose. It balances organizational outcomes gained with personal satisfaction without time synchs forced on individuals inside or outside an organization. The good news is that we have high productivity rates in mature economies. See the GDP Per Hour Worked by Region in Figure 1. The bad news is that the productivity increase rate is not what it could be, averaging only a meager 2.1 percent on average since 1947 and a shallow level of 1.6 percent recently. See Productivity Change Rates by period in Figure 2.



                                          Figure 1 GDP Per Hour Worked by Region


The additional good news is that AI is capable and is growing in its influence and impact by the minute. As long as AI is applied in a goal-driven fashion governed by reasonable boundaries, the possibilities are endless. The individuals who control these goals and constraints will lead the way to greater productivity. We can’t sit still and must apply AI aggressively on a local basis, constantly looking to the global impact incrementally. Every country can benefit from AI and potentially leap up in productivity.





                                      Figure 2 Productivity Change Rates by Time Period

Net; Net:

AI has the potential to decrease the hours worked for all of us. An accurate "more with less" enabled by AI. This is true for those who complete repetitive simple tasks, those who make decisions at the tactical level for optimization of work while taking great care of customer, employee, and partner journeys, and those who set strategy or create response scenarios in an ever-changing set of markets, industries, regions, and legal frameworks. While AI is exciting in its potential for productivity, it carries the fear of change and control. Let’s manage this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity AI gives us. This is the first post in a series on the productivity and application of AI. Watch this space.

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

When AI Goes Inside Out

AI is progressing well in many industries, assisting people or independently completing tasks. These uses of AI are often operational and can usually be embedded in business processes, software, or devices. We all, except for Luddites, expect the continued success of AI on focused tasks at the operational level. In fact, AI is progressing so well that it is catching up with humans for specific skills and combinations of skills (see Figure 1) from Stamford University below. It all sounds good, but the story could be different as AI ventures out to handle tactical management and executive strategy. AI will break out of processes and devices to combine various types of AI to assist and eventually automatically manage critical adjustments for businesses. It will happen as AI bootstraps success, leaving us with new challenges and driving us into AI fear zones. It is exciting and points to higher benefit levels for AI, but is this a Pandora’s Box?


Sample AI Operational Successes

· Automated Data Analysis: AI algorithms can analyze large volumes of data or content of various types to extract valuable insights and trends, enabling businesses to make data-driven decisions more efficiently.

· Process Automation: AI-powered robotic process automation (Smart RPA) can automate repetitive tasks such as data entry, invoice processing, and customer support inquiries, freeing up employees to focus on higher-value activities.

· Predictive Maintenance: AI can predict equipment failures by analyzing sensor data and historical maintenance records. It enables businesses to schedule maintenance proactively to minimize downtime.

· Dynamic Pricing: AI algorithms: AI algorithms can analyze market conditions, competitor pricing, and customer behavior to optimize pricing dynamically, maximizing revenue and profitability.

· Inventory Management: AI can optimize inventory levels by forecasting demand, identifying slow-moving items, automating replenishment processes, and reducing stockouts and excess inventory costs.

· Customer Service Enhancements: AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants can handle customer inquiries, provide personalized recommendations, and assist with problem-solving, improving the overall customer experience.

· Fraud Detection: AI algorithms can detect fraudulent activities, such as payment fraud, identity theft, and account takeover, by analyzing patterns and anomalies in transaction data, reducing losses and risk.


We all know that AI is progressing steadily towards an even brighter future for business applicability. AI is picking up skills fast and will equal human capabilities in any individual skill. See Figure 1 for a sample set of skills that AI is progressing.



                                            Figure 1 AI Skill Levels Over Time

This progress is impressive, and when combined with algorithms, goals, and boundaries, AI will go broader, deeper, more complicated, more complex, and more independent. AI will go from task to function while taking on tactics and strategy. Instead of just inside known and established processes, AI will break and challenge coordination and management tasks at the tactical level, eventually working its way into shaping strategy. Thereby putting AI in a position to respond to situations as AI deals well with emergence (complexity); this is an inside-out moment for AI that will start in the coming months and years. I expect the "inside out" trend to begin with processes, as AI can quickly move from tasks to management. The inside-out processes will likely start with monitoring, leading to notification and then to suggestions for action. Eventually, AI will take action with or without permission. 

The transition of AI from inside operational processes to outside processes typically involves the evolution of AI applications from narrow, task-specific implementations to broader, tactical, or strategic capabilities that impact various aspects of the business that cross traditional organizational boundaries. It includes the following:


· Scaling AI Across the Organization

· Integrating with Enterprise Systems

· Cross-Functional Collaboration

· Strategic Alignment and Executive Sponsorship

· Data Governance and Quality Assurance

· Continuous Learning and Improvement

· Partnerships and Ecosystem Collaboration

AI at the Tactical Level

At the tactical level, AI can contribute to essential cross-functional efforts and processes that require constant monitoring and adjustments that are tied to goals (static or emergent). Examples include:

· Customer Relationship Management: Besides the usual inquiry aid, AI can segment customers and proactively predict customer churn.

· Sales and Marketing: AI can drive better lead identification and suggest products/services to those leads. By analyzing activity, AI can target offers individually or with campaigns.

· Supply Chain Management: AI can forecast demand and market trends and tune logistics optimization dynamically while optimizing transportation costs.

· Operations and Manufacturing: AI can optimize production schedules, suggest improvements, and manage energy efficiency.

· Human Resources: AI can streamline recruitment and analyze employee performance for career development.

AI at the Strategic Level

At the strategic level, AI can contribute to the organization's executive level as it monitors the attainment of conflicting goals while maintaining profitability and reputation as a good community member locally and a great place to work while appealing for future investment. It is where emerging conditions must be monitored and intercepted and, where appropriate, changes. AI can start with being a sentinel, but bigger toles may be possible regarding the freedom to act independently. Examples include:

· Market Analysis and Competitive Intelligence: AI algorithms can analyze vast amounts of data from diverse resources to provide insights into market dynamics while identifying opportunities and threats from the competition.

· Forecasting and Planning: AI-powered predictive analytics can forecast future trends, demand patterns, and potential business outcomes, which might mean adjusting capital and resource allocation, inventory management, and production/service planning to optimize efficiency and reduce risk.

· Risk Management and Mitigation: AI can analyze various event patterns and data to identify potential risks and vulnerabilities, such as fraud, cybersecurity threats, and market fluctuations. It allows for proactive risk mitigation and safeguarded assets.

· Strategic Decisions: While AI might not make the decisions initially, AI-powered decision support systems can simulate various scenarios and the likelihood of them happening and have a plan of action. Whether it is a new market or investment, AI can help.

· Product and Service Innovation: AI technologies can be baked into offerings to create new products and services. Examples include computer vision, machine learning, voice-driven sentiment analysis, and intelligent service bots.

Net; Net:

AI will be going inside out and will have more influence on business outcomes at our organizations' operational, tactical, and strategic levels. The question is, what level of freedom will AI be given to act independently, especially if we get into an AI arms race in individual industries or between countries with very different value systems? It is inevitable unless AI has some overall meltdown. I have yet to see AI taking over from humans at the highest level of risk. The question for me is, "Will AI only be used for GOOD once it is given freedom, or Will it also be used for EVIL?" That is a topic for another day. AI will be used successfully as it has proven helpful in many use cases, with more coming. Will the winds of change rip the inside-out umbrella of AI out of our hands?

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Top 5 Technology Trends for 2024


Last week, I published the Top 5 Business Trends for 2024 (click here), and this week, I narrowed down several technology trends to my top 5 that organizations need to start responding to intensely in 2024.

Harnessing Usable AI

Most organizations will probably have some form of the many types of AI in progress. Progress could range from experimentation to production-enabled and active in several business and technology domains. Since organizations do not fear another AI Winter because of broad-based data-driven successes, they are looking to take advantage of various kinds of AI (click here for AI Tributaries and Types for 2024). Significant efforts in and around Natural Language Processing (NLP) will allow for human understanding and appropriate responses like generating human-like interfaces in chatbots and language translation services, for example. There will be more virtual assistants that will supercharge customers and employees to be more effective even beyond their inherent knowledge and skill levels. It will expand AI to voice, image, and video analysis to create a more inclusive context for decisions and actions for carbon-based participants and robotic assistants. There will be an emphasis on emotion recognition to deal with the human factors of doing business. This new capability and power will need to be protected, so intelligent cybersecurity will get a boost to detect and prevent threats leveraging AI. Expect organizations to use AI until governance issues become the focus.




Leveraging Intelligent Customer Experiences and Processes/Applications

Organizations will likely start switching from flow-directed approaches to goal-directed ones where the flow is based on the changing goals of a customer journey or process. Savvy organizations will include their goals with the goals of customers, partners, and employees in the goal-directed approaches and balance seemingly conflicting objectives in a balanced approach. Personalization will now consider goals and measure feedback through real-time observation and analysis. Of course, better user experiences and omni-channel experiences will continue as table stakes, but more will be demanded. User-centered design employing more gamification components will play a role as AI and algorithms will expand their reach to customers, employees, and partners to advance Customer Relationship Management (CRM). Human/ tech collaboration will get a fresh look, including new forms of augmented reality over time. Continuous improvement and aggressive automation will continue in times of stability; however, changing conditions may unhinge current optimization patterns. Intelligence will be used to adapt processes and user experiences more acceleratedly. Organizations will leverage predictive methods and more aggressive scenario management and monitoring. It will be a necessity with supply chain shifts and optimization particularly.

Moving to Convergent Business and Technology Platforms

While individual technology stacks bring benefits, costs, and challenges, organizations will eagerly watch for the convergence of focused functionality into platforms that more easily integrate technology functions to enable faster and cheaper business results. Desire will force broader technology options at a more affordable cost and potential mergers and buyouts. Convergence will create aggregated specialty platforms and generalized digital business platforms. The effect is fewer vendors to manage for organizations and more integrated business/technical functionality. Examples include generalized Digital Business Platforms (DBP), Business Application/Package Platforms, Sales/Customer Platforms, Process Platforms, Collaboration Platforms, Data Science/Analytic Platforms, Automation Platforms, Lowcode Platforms, Cloud Platforms, Data Mesh Platforms, and Security Platforms. For a quick overview of the players, click here. I expect AI platforms to emerge as success is experienced and integration becomes necessary.

Building on Intelligent Infrastructure

As all business-driven intelligence and agility become a competitive weapon, the need for intelligent infrastructure will emerge quickly. It means that the infrastructure players that leverage AI and analytics in either a reactive or proactive manner will flourish. It will create a race to intelligence under the covers of processes, systems, and applications. Edge computing and IoT integration are perfect examples of where putting intelligence at the edge or even outside of a business process will be necessary. First, it will be monitored soon after there will be recognition of the need for decisions close to the edge and intelligent actions to deal with the changing conditions. Eventually, AI-driven intelligent bots or agents will be brokering response patterns at the edge. Examples of success today would include Smart Cities infrastructure. Digital twins will flourish in intelligent infrastructure, leveraging clever hybrid and multi-cloud along with smart data meshes. All of this will require smart security that is blockchain-enabled. In the future, quantum computing exploration will keep a watchful eye on the swarms of agile AI bots responding to infrastructure and business needs.

Living with Governed Leverage with Sustainability

Like it or not, organizations will have to balance their business results with the trail of impact their business activities create. There will be the emergence of renewable energy integration where it makes sense. Recycling or recreation will be more emphasized in 2024, along with eco-friendly packaging solutions. Smart buildings that leverage AI for energy efficiency optimize energy consumption in many aspects of an organization's activities. Remote work will play a role in the delicate balance of progress and preservation. Technology will be essential in an organization's ability to measure, monitor, and reduce its carbon footprint over its complete operation as and its supply chain. Water management is becoming a vital resource to monitor and optimize, leveraging tech and advanced waste management technology and techniques.

Monday, November 6, 2023

AI Tributaries & Types for 2024

While it is imperative to understand what AI is, where it is going, and where it offers promise and downsides, it is also essential to know all the technology tributaries. These tributaries offer strengths that can contribute to business outcomes, but they also have challenges in implementation and operation. I gathered the most common AI technologies, depicted in Figure 1, and briefly described where to use them and where to avoid or bolster use. Often, organizations combine several of these tributaries to accomplish their desired outcomes and keep them current in a more automatic way. Keep in mind these tributaries are maturing fast and independently today, so organizations will have to package a number of these to reach desired outcomes that are of a higher order. I am hoping this enumeration will assist in spending your 2024 AI budget. 



                                                           Figure 1 AI Tributaries

Logical

Machine Learning

Definition

Machine learning is the kind of AI that teaches computers to learn from experiences represented by data and information that does not rely on a predetermined equation or sets of rules. Machine algorithms adaptively improve their performance as the number of data samples increases, thus increasing the learning process.

When to Use

Use machine learning when you can't code rules, such as human tasks involving recognition where there are many variables with frequent change.

When Not to Use

When the data is problematic, including too much noise, too dirty, or grossly incomplete.

Deep Learning

Definition

Deep learning is a distinct/specialized form of machine learning that attempts to learn like humans by identifying objects and linking them to each other using a neural network, which is layered with interconnected nodes called neurons that work together to process and learn from data. It's a form of patterned learning.

When to Use

Use learning is used where there is a large amount of data available and there is a requirement for higher accuracy. Typically, deep learning learns from its mistakes and includes the lessons learned.

When Not to Use

Deep learning has a high computational cost that must be factored into solutions. There is, of course, a high dependence on the data quality. The scope of the data it is trained on may limit its ability to deal with unforeseen consequences.

Pattern Recognition/Perception

Definition

Pattern recognition is the automated recognition and regularities in data of various sorts. These patterns can be classified and leveraged to make decisions or predictions. New and emergent patterns can be detected for further analysis.

When to Use

Pattern recognition is critical in improving comprehension of the intricacies of complex problems. It is beneficial for recognizing objects in images, scanning, and photo-related interpretations.

When Not to Use

Again, the state of the data is critical, but dealing with significant variations in the data may disqualify pattern recognition as a solution.

Natural Language Processing (NLP)

Definition

NLP is a form of AI that allows computers to understand human language in any form and leverage it in a more seamless human-computer experience.

When to Use

NLP is a significant bridging mechanism between humans in their own language and computers. It is often used for computers to read text or hear speech to interpret and measure sentiment, helping to identify important words/phrases.

When Not to Use

NLP is not as helpful when a particular language is inconsistent or ambiguous, particularly regarding sarcasm and culture.

Real-time Universal Translation

Definition

Real-time Translation helps people translate one language to another instantly. People speaking differently can have a conversation or meeting in different languages with minimal delays or issues with accuracy.

When to Use

Universal translation is an essential tool for breaking down language barriers and facilitating cross-cultural communication.

When Not to Use

UT cannot correctly translate expressions, idioms, slang, abbreviations, or acronyms. Additionally, it cannot provide an accurate yet creative translation. Therefore, it should be used with caution.

Chatbots

Definition

A chatbot is a software application or web interface that aims to mimic human conversation through text or voice interactions. Chatbots that represent real-world interactions and incremental learning are the most effective.

When to Use

Chatbots are used in timely, always-on assistance for customers or employees. Often, they are helpful in social media, messaging, and phone calls.

When Not to Use

Chatbots are not helpful when addressing customer grievances as every individual is unique, and the problem could be complex over a more extended period than any one business event or transaction.

Real-time Emotion Analytics (EA)

Definition

Emotion analytics collects data and analyzes how a person communicates verbally and nonverbally to understand a person’s mood or attitude in the context of an interaction. EA provides insights into how a customer perceives a product or service.

When to Use

EA can help you improve the usability, engagement, and satisfaction of your users, as well as identify and address any pain points or frustrations.

When Not to Use


Like other forms of technology, emotional AI can display biases and inaccuracies. Consumers have to consent to being analyzed by emotional AI, which may present some privacy concerns.

Virtual Companions

Definition

A virtual companion is an embodied AI character that advances multiple forms of companionship. It includes not only the experience of togetherness with an AI character but can also augment the nurturing of companionship between people or animals.

When to Use

These interactive programs are accessible through the web or mobile, that serves as a companion or partner for therapy and mentorship. Early uses are about a boyfriend or girlfriend relationship, fulfilling some of the functions usually associated with these relationships, but also used for elderly care—emerging benefits around mentorship and collaboration in business.

When Not to Use

Be careful, as they can cause harm, such as hurting users emotionally or giving dangerous advice. Sometimes, perpetuating biases and problematic dynamics are a result of their use.

Expert Systems

Definition

Expert systems leverage AI to simulate the judgment and behavior of a human or an organization with expertise or experience in a particular field.

When to Use

Expert systems can be used standalone or to assist non-experts. It's helpful when skills are scarce locally, expensive, error-prone, and people are too slow.

When Not to Use

Expert systems do not leverage common sense and often lack creative or sensitive responses that humans can deliver. Often, expert systems lack explainability.

Generative AI

Definition

Generative AI refers to models or algorithms that create brand-new output, such as text, photos, videos, code, data, or 3D renderings, from the vast amounts of data they are trained on. The models 'generate' new content by referring to the data they have been trained on, making new predictions and output.

When to Use

Generative AI creates new and often original content, responses, designs, and synthetic data. It’s valuable in creative fields and novel problem-solving while generating new types of outputs.

When Not to Use

Generative AI can provide helpful outputs based on users' queries, but sometimes, the material generated can be offensive, inappropriate, or inaccurate. Human guidance can correct the result and put it into context.

Physical

Edge AI

Definition

Edge AI is all about putting intelligence closest to any device or edge computing environment. Edge AI allows computations to be done close to where the data is collected rather than at a centralized cloud computing facility or offsite data center.

When to Use

When speedy, always-on, and decisions are necessary, close to where data is sensed and collected.

When Not to Use

Edge AI devices may not all have the same level of encryption, authentication, and protection, therefore making them more vulnerable to cyberattacks. Scalability is also a challenge.

Sensing AI

Definition

Sensing AI is an AI awareness that is driven by one or many human-replicated sensing capabilities such as voice, vision, touch, taste, or smell. Sensing AI gives a presence in one or more physical contexts to present data to the logical side of AI.

When to Use


Any time in context computing will assist; any or all of these senses will give immediate and vital feedback to computing systems and humans. These are often used in dangerous environments.

When Not to Use

When Physical senses do not contribute to desired outcomes or where immediate feedback is unnecessary.

Autonomous Robotics (AR)

Definition

ARs are autonomous intelligent machines that can perform tasks and operate in environments independently without human intervention.

When to Use

Ars are great at automating manual or repetitive activities in corporate or industrial settings, but they also are great at working in unpredictable or hazardous environments.

When Not to Use

Robots only do what they are programmed to do and can't do more than expected unless some kind of learning AI powers them.

Next-Gen Cloud Robotics

Definition

Cloud robotics is the use of cloud computing, cloud storage, and other internet technologies in the field of robotics. One of the main advantages of cloud robotics is its ability to provide vast amounts of data to robotic devices without incorporating it directly via onboard memory.

When to Use

Cloud-based robot systems are capable of collaborative tasks. For example, a series of industrial robotic devices can process a custom order, manufacture the order, and deliver it all on its own—without human operators.

When Not to Use

Tasks that involve real-time execution require on-board processing. Cloud-based applications can get slow or unavailable due to high-latency responses or network hitch.

Robotic Personal Assistants

Definition

A robot personal assistant is an artificial intelligence that assists you with routine domestic chores and improves your quality of life.

When to Use

Today, these robots are used in specialized services such as cleaning.

When Not to Use

For tasks that require empathy or dynamic adaptability,

Management & Control

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Definition

AGI represents generalized human cognitive abilities on software that can solve an unfamiliar task.

When to Use

If realized, an AGI could learn to accomplish any intellectual task humans or animals can perform. Alternatively, AGI has been defined as an autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks.

When Not to Use

It is not here yet.

Digital Twin

Definition

A digital twin is the digital representation of a physical object, person, or process contextualized in a digital version of its environment. Digital twin links the logical side of AI and the physical side of AI in an artificial environment to visualize, simulate, and try actions without real consequences, ultimately promoting better decisions by humans or machines.

When to Use

Digital twin technology enables you to create higher-quality products, buildings, or even entire cities. By creating a simulation of a system or a physical object, designers can test different design scenarios, identify potential design flaws, and make improvements before construction begins.

When Not to Use

It is challenging to maintain a digital asset. Many digital twin efforts fail because the digital assets don't receive the same maintenance effort as the physical ones. The digital twin requires consistent upkeep, significant observation, and time to document all real-time changes.

Smart Self-Generating/Adaptive Applications, Processes and Journeys

Definition

Self-adaptive software systems can adjust their behavior in response to their perception of the environment and the system itself. Applications, processes, and journeys coordinate competent and not-so-smart resources and must constantly be tweaked to stay current with needs.

When to Use

When a system or process supports emerging conditions and desired outcomes.

When Not to Use


When the system or process exhibits long-term stability

Goal-Driven & Constraint Behavior

Definition

When Management goals change to reflect the latest thinking or emerging governance constraints, systems and processes seek these goals within governance boundaries.

When to Use

When volatility is a crucial consideration, or there is a robust environment of emergence

When Not to Use

When stability creates a Constance.

Cognitive Cybersecurity

Definition

Cognitive security is the interception between cognitive science and artificial intelligence techniques used to protect institutions against cyberattacks.

When to Use

When bad actors generate intelligent attacks

When Not to Use

It is not optional today and is part of the intelligent infrastructure

Net; Net:

It is essential to understand all the flavors of AI so that solutions can leverage AI where it makes sense in the current and future business environments. The AI tributaries will combine into solutions that will be more business or consumer-ready. Leading organizations will not wait long to take advantage of these tributaries and emerging combinations. Even the following organizations need to understand these tributaries to ask the right questions to vendors or internal developers. AI is shape-shifting, so let's stay on top of this emerging movement.

Additional Reading:

Definition of AI

















Monday, October 2, 2023

Who is Afraid of AI?

With all the AI-related newsfeeds, stories, announcements, and tech giant personalities sharing their wisdom, it would be hard to avoid hearing about the "Big Bad AI" undercurrents. To answer this question honestly, I would admit to both fear and excitement. For the short term, the news is mostly good and helpful, but the fear of where AI might end up down the road scares us all. To sort this out, I tried to identify ten things that scare me about AI and ten things that encourage me about AI. Read about the three Eras of AI coming your way by clicking here.



My Top Ten Fears

AI Takes Over the World

At the worst, AI will become self-aware and use its powers against humankind. I'm not a big believer in this scenario. While AI will network with other AI forces to do good, it is more likely that bad actors will leverage AI for dark outcomes or power than AI coalescing to destroy humankind.

AI Lacks Ethics and Empathy

AI is great at doing tasks today informed by multiple data, information, and knowledge sources. As AI spreads, it will become more engrained in the decision-making processes at various levels, and decisions will likely be driven by hard science and logic rather than the feelings of people or the respect of ethical behavior.

AI is Used to Battle Security

AI will be used to fool individuals and organizations with deep fakes by computing through multiple security defenses. We see this emerging now, but AI can be used to battle security incursions. The arms race will only get more intense with AI supercharging the security wars.

AI Displaces Jobs & Skills

AI will take jobs away from people. It will start with menial or manual work, especially where danger is present and repetitive precision is needed. While AI will create new jobs that require new skills, people will be displaced until they find work AI is not great at, which tends towards creativity and careers that need deep people skills. The workforce will always have to be learning or chasing the last chair in a game of AI musical chairs.

AI Lacks Transparency & Explanation


AI and automation must rarely explain themselves or be completely transparent. AI must explain itself, at least after the fact, to govern and deliver fair treatment. Ideally, AI should ask before, but that takes time. Time is often the savings benefit that drives AI, so that post-audit trends will be vital.

AI Lacks Real Creativity

Yes, AI can copy creations of the past and even generate projects based on creative libraries of content, but will it be able to create new concepts that please the nature of human appreciation? There is much room here for AI to generate and have humans add or adjust, but the natural creativity lies in humans today.

AI is Used for Social Manipulation


AI can fake stories, create deep fake videos, and play impostors cleverly. In the hands of manipulators, AI can be leveraged to develop actions in humans who buy, vote, and act. While it can be used for good, like changing behaviors to benefit societies, AI can also steer us toward bad outcomes.

AI Invades Privacy

AI can listen everywhere simultaneously across various communication channels and existing data fabrics to expose information that individuals would not want available to the public or particular parties. It is scary for most folks and can be used to breach the trust and security of many relationships with individuals, businesses, and the government.

AI Ignites Economic & Geopolitical Competition

AI will be the fuel for competition in the fast-growing digital economies. The nations that harness AI will have a distinct advantage over those that do not. It will likely turn into an arms race of sorts.

AI Enables Laziness & Skills Atrophy

AI will show significant promise and results in assisting organizations and individuals. Specific skills will not be maintained, and people will want AI to do more for them. Some of the skills are mundane, so that might be good, but setting an entitlement attitude is not a great value to deliver from AI.

My Top Ten Encouragements

AI Enables Advanced Automation


Organizations are in love with Automation because of its positive effect on profits. AI will supercharge Automation with smarts, speed, and precision. Operationally, AI will be a big win. Low-level work will be eliminated, and AI will enrich and augment most jobs.

AI is Always On

AI never rests and is available 24/7 if the AI infrastructure and applications are running. People need rest, and AI does not. As AI progresses to higher-level skills, new work classes will inherit a new level of availability.

AI Provides Real-time Knowledge & Wisdom

AI is excellent at providing just-in-time data and integrated, summarized, and massaged information. In the first era of AI, there will be a big emphasis on machine learning, information aggregation, pattern recognition, and knowledge delivery. All of this will help workers and individuals progress in their desired outcomes.

AI Assists in Task Completion

Not only will AI deliver knowledge, but it will also help people make decisions and perform tasks of all kinds. People and bots will be supercharged with additional perceptions, projections, skills, and abilities to take on work over their current station.

AI Specialization & Focus Delivers Precision

AI is so precise on low-level tasks it outperforms most workers. In addition, even when 100% precision is not necessary, AI can give the best alternatives with the best accuracy.

AI Delivers Better & Faster Decisions

AI is so fast and looks across multiple contexts, and it's impressive. Guided AI can find the best alternatives given even conflicting goals within explicit constraints. The data is complete better than other approaches, and alternative algorithms have the best chance of being correct.

AI Boosts Economic Growth


AI increases the productivity of many resources, so profits and GDP will flourish worldwide. Resources will be less stressed, and there will be more free time to generate new products and services.

AI Provides Continuous Monitoring of Results

Since AI never sleeps, KPIs, goals, outcomes, and emergent trends can be watched. AI will encourage continuous feedback, and improvement can be baked into responses.

AI delivers Error Reduction.


AI does not make mistakes at the operational levels and allows tactical and strategic management to get the best results in a modeling way.

AI Can Complete Dangerous Tasks

Tasks that risk the safety of humans can be automated with AI, or humans can be assisted safely.

Net; Net:

After putting down my thoughts and thinking deeply about AI, I fear AI long-term. If the control of AI ends up in the hands of bad actors or AI becomes self-aware and disregards its guardrails or constraints, we are in for a wild ride. AI-driven wars where guardrails are removed or mismatched will also cause bad outcomes. AI likely becomes as powerful as nuclear weapons in the hands of both good and bad actors that mutually keep each other at bay. Right now, AI promises to improve our lives, and I see a rosy outlook for the near term. AI will contribute to individuals, groups, and organizations for sure. The long-term evolution and potential misuse keep me up at night. We must forge ahead to stay competitive, but AI must be monitored, governed, and balanced. There will be tremendous and sad stories ahead of us, so keep your eyes open and stay in a learning mode together. Long live AI, but don't take the oxygen out of the room for humans.

Monday, September 11, 2023

Preview of AI Coming to You

You can hardly escape the topic of AI these days. Various definitions of AI are floating around, and predictions of where AI is going. Some sources want you to be scared of AI, others want you to depend on them for guideposts as AI rolls out, and still others are pumped about the future benefits. For my sanity, I put together the three eras AI will likely go through as it heads towards progress and assisting humankind. While the benefits of AI will be plentiful and the impact will be disruptive, we can guide the growth and development of new digital experiences/outcomes that AI can assist. If we are mindful, we can prevent out-of-control consciousness and sentient AI. Of course, AI technologies can be used for both good and bad, so our lawmakers need to add forms of governance, and we all need to share what works for the good of all. In Figure 1, I have defined the three eras of AI I expect to see going forward.


 Figure 1 The Three Eras of AI


Intelligent Behavior Axis

While there were two AI winters in the past because the expectations of AI did not deliver as promised, I do not foresee a third AI winter. Organizations are prudently leveraging AI in new ways to speed up information for advantage and leverage generative capabilities that use aggregate bodies of knowledge and creations to bootstrap new content. All of this is to assist resources organizations use to create better experiences/journeys for their constituents supported by more intelligent processes that can lead to situational advantage at all levels. This advantage will likely start operational, leading to better tactics and eventually to strategies that adapt to emergent conditions and dynamic management of many scenarios, anticipated or not. The anticipation for more intelligent and assisted behaviors has never been more significant with the advent of AI leverage.

Freedom Level Axis

The real rub with AI revolves around ensuring that AI stays a positive force for good outcomes. It is not a massive problem in the first era where we unwrap the benefits of automation, generation, and the leverage of collective knowledge that goes further than people expect. AI will likely be supervised, and its results can be explainable in the first era where AI's freedom will be carefully watched with teased testing and trained algorithms. The freedom level for AI will be low in this era. As organizations become more confident in AI, the freedom for AI will shift to less supervision, with expandability being the key tether for AI. In the second era of AI, there will be focused assistance to vertical industries, horizontal organizational functions, and individuals to supercharge them with just-in-time knowledge, speedy multi-dimensional sensing, and assistance in complex multi-disciplinary enabled actions. The resources assisted that are carbon-based will automatically demand to explain ability until trust is established in the AI assistance and advice. In the case of automation and bots, outcomes will be overseen with significant testing if danger is involved. The third era is where AI becomes independent, where AI detects, decides, and acts on its own. Knowing that AI will lead here, built on top of the infrastructure of the previous eras, will not be good enough. Organizations will be giving AI goals to drive towards and governance boundaries (constraints) to give AI the desired outcomes as guidance. After the fact, the results will be audited to tweak the goals and boundaries to dial in AI.

Collective Knowledge AI Era

AI significant benefits in this era include the leverage of natural language processing, including image/voice recognition in the content scope, leveraging mining strengths, and event/pattern detection with machine learning. These all help accelerate desired automation that continues to learn and improve. The generative aspect of this era leverages collective knowledge/content to amplify creation and enhance significant personalization while employing adaptive learning to enhance discovery and deepen knowledge. There are considerable time and cost savings as low-hanging benefits of this era.

Persona Based AI Era

The benefits of this era revolve around assisting roles with the proper content and knowledge to accomplish goals. It is performed by speedy resources and advice for roles to achieve steps leading to desired outcomes. It can be at the individual resource level to optimize any size or shape resource, including people, software, or devices at the edge of a remote situation. Having a base of collective knowledge now combined with algorithms and AI component software gives these personas the power to go beyond their base skill level to better optimization. The persona can go beyond individual resources to groups of aggregated resources heading in the same direction, like vertical industries, horizontal supply chains, and functional groups aimed at complex sets of goals.

Guided Results AI Era

AI switches from narrow and focused intelligence to general intelligence in this era. The benefits in this arena are aimed at attaining optimum overall optimization while dealing with change waves on a more real-time basis. AI guides the overall journey, value chain, or process to optimum results with changes in flight. AI becomes a broker for detection, decision-making, and actions appropriate for the situation(s). It creates situational awareness and advantages at the operational, tactical, and strategic levels.

Net; Net:

The future of AI is rife with potential, and organizations are just scratching the surface as of this writing. The benefits are significant, and so are the headwinds. A bounty of vendors is waiting to help, but sorting through the list will be challenging. As the AI eras progress, there will be combinations of vendors that will deliver multiple integrated benefit pools. The skills are scarce but will emerge quickly to drive the apparent benefits. Taming AI with a balanced legislation approach that works across legal frameworks and countries will be a long-term goal; however, self-control with great goals and guardrails can give early adopters a significant advantage. I will be delivering more posts on the AI topic, so stay tuned. The oldies and goodies are listed in the additional AI readings section.


Additional AI Readings