The recent and ongoing battle with COVID-19 has raised a
goodly number of issues in and around getting surprised, arguments around
emergent data, and slow/appropriate responses. The lessons learned so far are
pretty rich, but I think there is more to discover. Scenario planning seemed to
be lacking, the early warning systems seemed to have broken down, responses
seemed slow and unpracticed once the denial hurdle was overcome. This was not a
"Black Swan" event, so why did this pandemic seem to throw a monkey
wrench into humankind's systems and processes? It may a bit early as all the
dust hasn’t settled yet, but there are some obvious conclusions even now. What
can we say now?
Scenario Planning
While pandemics are a practiced and expected scenario, the
level of detail in this kind of scenario was tested in new ways. There were new
discoveries in how trends in supply chains were working against us. With longer
supply chains for medical supplies and equipment, the stress put on existing
supply chains because of panic buying of many items, including food, and how do
deal with rescinding demand in finely tuned supply chains. The detailed
scenario planning and modeling really seemed off the mark this time on a
worldwide basis. There were also some emergent geopolitical effects not
completely thought through for sure. Scenario planning needs to handle models
with more emergence in a fine-tuned fashion. Businesses and individuals need to
up their game in this arena as well.
Early Warning
It is not surprising that less than effective scenario
planning would lead to missing emergent data that was not expected, but as the
emergent data morphed/changed, there were shadow events, signals, and patterns
that took longer to recognize. Early warning needs to be able to recognize event
patterns that go beyond expected events. These events and patterns need to
participate in more complexity theory and real-time recognition that
understands emergence in complex and interconnected systems and supply/value
chains. This starts out at endpoint detection and merges with associated and
real-time unassociated events to create emergent patterns. Agents/bots sniffing
at the edge and event responding in the case of known situations and contexts
is minimal, but merging and emergent complexities need to be tested, and models/scenarios
need to be updated in near real-time.
Appropriate Responses
It seemed pretty clear that many responses were unpracticed,
emergency stores were over-whelmed and tactical responses were being invented
on the fly. Since appropriate responses are dependent on in scenarios and early
warning, the compounding effect on responses were evident. There were some
pretty impressive examples of human creativity/inventiveness and sacrifice to
make up for the deficiencies, but can we plan on this always happening for the
good of all? We saw governments taking over supply chains, people quarantined
late and long, and decisions walking the razor edge between mortality and
economic suffocation.
Net; Net:
We can do better. We
have to do better as more negative scenarios are emerging as nature deals out
an accelerating frequency of earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanoes, pandemics,
regional famines, and shifting geopolitical events. I suggest we invest in
Emergent Data Recognition (EDR) tied to improvements in scenario planning and
practiced responses from a strategic and tactical perspective. There are
lessons in emergent data that we have to be ready to leverage. The more
prepared we are, the better it will be for us all. It's worth the investment in
terms of life and livelihood.
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