Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Generative AI with Art is Fun

 Recently, I've been working with Generative AI to create music videos for the songs on my upcoming album. You can expect my new music to roll out in the first quarter of 2024, and you will hear and see more about the new music soon. While working with Kaiber to help me deliver music videos, I thought it might be a nice experiment to take some of my art portfolios and make videos out of static 2D art. Here are the results of some of my recent experiments. They are pretty short, so I hope you take some time to enjoy them. To be honest, there were some failures, but most were successful. Enjoy !!





                                      Waves of Color 



                                      Lightning



                                    Color Reef



                                    Asteroid Field


                                     Color Wave 


Additional Generative AI Posts

Generative AI Momentum

Art and AI

AI Types


Monday, November 6, 2023

AI Tributaries & Types for 2024

While it is imperative to understand what AI is, where it is going, and where it offers promise and downsides, it is also essential to know all the technology tributaries. These tributaries offer strengths that can contribute to business outcomes, but they also have challenges in implementation and operation. I gathered the most common AI technologies, depicted in Figure 1, and briefly described where to use them and where to avoid or bolster use. Often, organizations combine several of these tributaries to accomplish their desired outcomes and keep them current in a more automatic way. Keep in mind these tributaries are maturing fast and independently today, so organizations will have to package a number of these to reach desired outcomes that are of a higher order. I am hoping this enumeration will assist in spending your 2024 AI budget. 



                                                           Figure 1 AI Tributaries

Logical

Machine Learning

Definition

Machine learning is the kind of AI that teaches computers to learn from experiences represented by data and information that does not rely on a predetermined equation or sets of rules. Machine algorithms adaptively improve their performance as the number of data samples increases, thus increasing the learning process.

When to Use

Use machine learning when you can't code rules, such as human tasks involving recognition where there are many variables with frequent change.

When Not to Use

When the data is problematic, including too much noise, too dirty, or grossly incomplete.

Deep Learning

Definition

Deep learning is a distinct/specialized form of machine learning that attempts to learn like humans by identifying objects and linking them to each other using a neural network, which is layered with interconnected nodes called neurons that work together to process and learn from data. It's a form of patterned learning.

When to Use

Use learning is used where there is a large amount of data available and there is a requirement for higher accuracy. Typically, deep learning learns from its mistakes and includes the lessons learned.

When Not to Use

Deep learning has a high computational cost that must be factored into solutions. There is, of course, a high dependence on the data quality. The scope of the data it is trained on may limit its ability to deal with unforeseen consequences.

Pattern Recognition/Perception

Definition

Pattern recognition is the automated recognition and regularities in data of various sorts. These patterns can be classified and leveraged to make decisions or predictions. New and emergent patterns can be detected for further analysis.

When to Use

Pattern recognition is critical in improving comprehension of the intricacies of complex problems. It is beneficial for recognizing objects in images, scanning, and photo-related interpretations.

When Not to Use

Again, the state of the data is critical, but dealing with significant variations in the data may disqualify pattern recognition as a solution.

Natural Language Processing (NLP)

Definition

NLP is a form of AI that allows computers to understand human language in any form and leverage it in a more seamless human-computer experience.

When to Use

NLP is a significant bridging mechanism between humans in their own language and computers. It is often used for computers to read text or hear speech to interpret and measure sentiment, helping to identify important words/phrases.

When Not to Use

NLP is not as helpful when a particular language is inconsistent or ambiguous, particularly regarding sarcasm and culture.

Real-time Universal Translation

Definition

Real-time Translation helps people translate one language to another instantly. People speaking differently can have a conversation or meeting in different languages with minimal delays or issues with accuracy.

When to Use

Universal translation is an essential tool for breaking down language barriers and facilitating cross-cultural communication.

When Not to Use

UT cannot correctly translate expressions, idioms, slang, abbreviations, or acronyms. Additionally, it cannot provide an accurate yet creative translation. Therefore, it should be used with caution.

Chatbots

Definition

A chatbot is a software application or web interface that aims to mimic human conversation through text or voice interactions. Chatbots that represent real-world interactions and incremental learning are the most effective.

When to Use

Chatbots are used in timely, always-on assistance for customers or employees. Often, they are helpful in social media, messaging, and phone calls.

When Not to Use

Chatbots are not helpful when addressing customer grievances as every individual is unique, and the problem could be complex over a more extended period than any one business event or transaction.

Real-time Emotion Analytics (EA)

Definition

Emotion analytics collects data and analyzes how a person communicates verbally and nonverbally to understand a person’s mood or attitude in the context of an interaction. EA provides insights into how a customer perceives a product or service.

When to Use

EA can help you improve the usability, engagement, and satisfaction of your users, as well as identify and address any pain points or frustrations.

When Not to Use


Like other forms of technology, emotional AI can display biases and inaccuracies. Consumers have to consent to being analyzed by emotional AI, which may present some privacy concerns.

Virtual Companions

Definition

A virtual companion is an embodied AI character that advances multiple forms of companionship. It includes not only the experience of togetherness with an AI character but can also augment the nurturing of companionship between people or animals.

When to Use

These interactive programs are accessible through the web or mobile, that serves as a companion or partner for therapy and mentorship. Early uses are about a boyfriend or girlfriend relationship, fulfilling some of the functions usually associated with these relationships, but also used for elderly care—emerging benefits around mentorship and collaboration in business.

When Not to Use

Be careful, as they can cause harm, such as hurting users emotionally or giving dangerous advice. Sometimes, perpetuating biases and problematic dynamics are a result of their use.

Expert Systems

Definition

Expert systems leverage AI to simulate the judgment and behavior of a human or an organization with expertise or experience in a particular field.

When to Use

Expert systems can be used standalone or to assist non-experts. It's helpful when skills are scarce locally, expensive, error-prone, and people are too slow.

When Not to Use

Expert systems do not leverage common sense and often lack creative or sensitive responses that humans can deliver. Often, expert systems lack explainability.

Generative AI

Definition

Generative AI refers to models or algorithms that create brand-new output, such as text, photos, videos, code, data, or 3D renderings, from the vast amounts of data they are trained on. The models 'generate' new content by referring to the data they have been trained on, making new predictions and output.

When to Use

Generative AI creates new and often original content, responses, designs, and synthetic data. It’s valuable in creative fields and novel problem-solving while generating new types of outputs.

When Not to Use

Generative AI can provide helpful outputs based on users' queries, but sometimes, the material generated can be offensive, inappropriate, or inaccurate. Human guidance can correct the result and put it into context.

Physical

Edge AI

Definition

Edge AI is all about putting intelligence closest to any device or edge computing environment. Edge AI allows computations to be done close to where the data is collected rather than at a centralized cloud computing facility or offsite data center.

When to Use

When speedy, always-on, and decisions are necessary, close to where data is sensed and collected.

When Not to Use

Edge AI devices may not all have the same level of encryption, authentication, and protection, therefore making them more vulnerable to cyberattacks. Scalability is also a challenge.

Sensing AI

Definition

Sensing AI is an AI awareness that is driven by one or many human-replicated sensing capabilities such as voice, vision, touch, taste, or smell. Sensing AI gives a presence in one or more physical contexts to present data to the logical side of AI.

When to Use


Any time in context computing will assist; any or all of these senses will give immediate and vital feedback to computing systems and humans. These are often used in dangerous environments.

When Not to Use

When Physical senses do not contribute to desired outcomes or where immediate feedback is unnecessary.

Autonomous Robotics (AR)

Definition

ARs are autonomous intelligent machines that can perform tasks and operate in environments independently without human intervention.

When to Use

Ars are great at automating manual or repetitive activities in corporate or industrial settings, but they also are great at working in unpredictable or hazardous environments.

When Not to Use

Robots only do what they are programmed to do and can't do more than expected unless some kind of learning AI powers them.

Next-Gen Cloud Robotics

Definition

Cloud robotics is the use of cloud computing, cloud storage, and other internet technologies in the field of robotics. One of the main advantages of cloud robotics is its ability to provide vast amounts of data to robotic devices without incorporating it directly via onboard memory.

When to Use

Cloud-based robot systems are capable of collaborative tasks. For example, a series of industrial robotic devices can process a custom order, manufacture the order, and deliver it all on its own—without human operators.

When Not to Use

Tasks that involve real-time execution require on-board processing. Cloud-based applications can get slow or unavailable due to high-latency responses or network hitch.

Robotic Personal Assistants

Definition

A robot personal assistant is an artificial intelligence that assists you with routine domestic chores and improves your quality of life.

When to Use

Today, these robots are used in specialized services such as cleaning.

When Not to Use

For tasks that require empathy or dynamic adaptability,

Management & Control

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Definition

AGI represents generalized human cognitive abilities on software that can solve an unfamiliar task.

When to Use

If realized, an AGI could learn to accomplish any intellectual task humans or animals can perform. Alternatively, AGI has been defined as an autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks.

When Not to Use

It is not here yet.

Digital Twin

Definition

A digital twin is the digital representation of a physical object, person, or process contextualized in a digital version of its environment. Digital twin links the logical side of AI and the physical side of AI in an artificial environment to visualize, simulate, and try actions without real consequences, ultimately promoting better decisions by humans or machines.

When to Use

Digital twin technology enables you to create higher-quality products, buildings, or even entire cities. By creating a simulation of a system or a physical object, designers can test different design scenarios, identify potential design flaws, and make improvements before construction begins.

When Not to Use

It is challenging to maintain a digital asset. Many digital twin efforts fail because the digital assets don't receive the same maintenance effort as the physical ones. The digital twin requires consistent upkeep, significant observation, and time to document all real-time changes.

Smart Self-Generating/Adaptive Applications, Processes and Journeys

Definition

Self-adaptive software systems can adjust their behavior in response to their perception of the environment and the system itself. Applications, processes, and journeys coordinate competent and not-so-smart resources and must constantly be tweaked to stay current with needs.

When to Use

When a system or process supports emerging conditions and desired outcomes.

When Not to Use


When the system or process exhibits long-term stability

Goal-Driven & Constraint Behavior

Definition

When Management goals change to reflect the latest thinking or emerging governance constraints, systems and processes seek these goals within governance boundaries.

When to Use

When volatility is a crucial consideration, or there is a robust environment of emergence

When Not to Use

When stability creates a Constance.

Cognitive Cybersecurity

Definition

Cognitive security is the interception between cognitive science and artificial intelligence techniques used to protect institutions against cyberattacks.

When to Use

When bad actors generate intelligent attacks

When Not to Use

It is not optional today and is part of the intelligent infrastructure

Net; Net:

It is essential to understand all the flavors of AI so that solutions can leverage AI where it makes sense in the current and future business environments. The AI tributaries will combine into solutions that will be more business or consumer-ready. Leading organizations will not wait long to take advantage of these tributaries and emerging combinations. Even the following organizations need to understand these tributaries to ask the right questions to vendors or internal developers. AI is shape-shifting, so let's stay on top of this emerging movement.

Additional Reading:

Definition of AI

















Monday, October 23, 2023

Why Do You Need to Define AI?

Everyone is talking about AI, and nearly half of the digital/technological budgets for 2024 are aimed at AI. Because of this, everyone should care about what AI is and what kind of AI you want to meet your objectives. You need to know if something is AI or if some vendor or internal developer is just AI-washing what they have to offer. I think it is essential to understand what AI is today because AI is on a journey, and it's vital to know where it came from, what can be done with AI today, and where AI is headed. This way, organizations aren't stuck with pioneering without knowing they are on the edge or using traditional technology wrapped in an AI wrapper to leverage the AI movement. Or you are claiming AI victories by just putting window dressing on conventional technology. AI will be a critical player on your team soon, so to get to know AI early, I tried to identify authoritative definitions and put them in one place for you, including what one version of AI thinks. I also attempted to define a value-added definition of AI, leveraging my past business experience leveraging AI to get started.






General:

Artificial intelligence leverages computers and machines to mimic the problem-solving and decision-making capabilities of the human mind.

The Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAI): AI’s primary goal is to build an intelligent machine. The second goal is to find out about the nature of intelligence.

WIKI: Artificial intelligence (AI) – intelligence exhibited by machines or software. It is also the name of the scientific field which studies how to create computers and computer software that are capable of intelligent behavior.

Gartner defines artificial intelligence (AI) as applying advanced analysis and logic-based techniques, including machine learning (ML), to interpret events, support and automate decisions, and take actions. This definition is consistent with the current and emerging state of AI technologies and capabilities, and it acknowledges that AI now generally involves probabilistic analysis (combining probability and logic to assign a value to uncertainty).

Forrester defines “generative AI” as: “A set of technologies and techniques that leverage massive corpuses of data, including large language models, to generate new content (e.g., text, video, images, audio, code). Inputs may be natural language prompts or other non-code and non-traditional inputs.”

Investopedia

The simulation of human intelligence by software-coded heuristics

ChatGPT

AI, or Artificial Intelligence, refers to the simulation of human intelligence processes by machines, particularly computer systems. These processes include learning, reasoning, problem-solving, perception, and language understanding. AI technologies aim to enable computers and machines to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, such as understanding natural language, recognizing patterns, making decisions, and adapting to new information.

Jim Sinur


"AI is the leverage of software and machines to add perception/intelligence to individuals, customer/constituent experiences, processes/tasks and devices to optimize balanced outcomes by interpreting patterns of interest, making highly informed decisions with speed, and taking appropriate proactive or reactive actions considering wide and deep implications all within the context of changing conditions and governance guardrails."

Net: Net:

It is essential to know what kind of AI you are buying. Machine intelligence or generative AI is often represented as the only and most advanced AI. Ensure you understand the AI you are buying or building as many technologies participate in the AI disciplines. It may mean understanding the multiple streams of AI contributing to a solution you may buy or build. It influences what problems you are trying to solve, your testing/debugging, and where it can go off the ranch and get into trouble in places you don’t anticipate. If you want a picture of where AI has come from or where it is likely to head, please click here. The Gartner AI Hype Cycle is another good resource. Better yet, you need to define what kind of AI you want to pursue in line with your business objectives and get ahead of AI’s projected core competencies and technologies for the future.

It would be best if you defined AI for you continuously as it evolves to the ideals declared in the general definitions available. AI is just a set of methods, techniques, and tools that will be used for good and bad outcomes. Remember, AI is not God, and nor should it be used by actors to create an artificial god. Humankind will eventually be supercharged with AI. As always, some will fly too close to the sun.


Additional Reading:


Wednesday, October 11, 2023

What Have Peeps Been Reading in the 3Q 2023?

 Topics of customer journeys and processes continue to gather interest, but surprisingly, the combination of IOT and process hit the top spot for interest. Of course, AI is peaking because of the momentum of generative AI. Managing new balances with collaboration, balancing new digital efforts with legacy maintenance, and creating the elusive management cockpit for management visibility also gathered interest. Sweden and Canada were the most active offshore countries. 

                                          Hot Topics for 3Q2023



                                                Third Quarter 2023 Offshore Activity  (non-US & China)           




Monday, October 2, 2023

Who is Afraid of AI?

With all the AI-related newsfeeds, stories, announcements, and tech giant personalities sharing their wisdom, it would be hard to avoid hearing about the "Big Bad AI" undercurrents. To answer this question honestly, I would admit to both fear and excitement. For the short term, the news is mostly good and helpful, but the fear of where AI might end up down the road scares us all. To sort this out, I tried to identify ten things that scare me about AI and ten things that encourage me about AI. Read about the three Eras of AI coming your way by clicking here.



My Top Ten Fears

AI Takes Over the World

At the worst, AI will become self-aware and use its powers against humankind. I'm not a big believer in this scenario. While AI will network with other AI forces to do good, it is more likely that bad actors will leverage AI for dark outcomes or power than AI coalescing to destroy humankind.

AI Lacks Ethics and Empathy

AI is great at doing tasks today informed by multiple data, information, and knowledge sources. As AI spreads, it will become more engrained in the decision-making processes at various levels, and decisions will likely be driven by hard science and logic rather than the feelings of people or the respect of ethical behavior.

AI is Used to Battle Security

AI will be used to fool individuals and organizations with deep fakes by computing through multiple security defenses. We see this emerging now, but AI can be used to battle security incursions. The arms race will only get more intense with AI supercharging the security wars.

AI Displaces Jobs & Skills

AI will take jobs away from people. It will start with menial or manual work, especially where danger is present and repetitive precision is needed. While AI will create new jobs that require new skills, people will be displaced until they find work AI is not great at, which tends towards creativity and careers that need deep people skills. The workforce will always have to be learning or chasing the last chair in a game of AI musical chairs.

AI Lacks Transparency & Explanation


AI and automation must rarely explain themselves or be completely transparent. AI must explain itself, at least after the fact, to govern and deliver fair treatment. Ideally, AI should ask before, but that takes time. Time is often the savings benefit that drives AI, so that post-audit trends will be vital.

AI Lacks Real Creativity

Yes, AI can copy creations of the past and even generate projects based on creative libraries of content, but will it be able to create new concepts that please the nature of human appreciation? There is much room here for AI to generate and have humans add or adjust, but the natural creativity lies in humans today.

AI is Used for Social Manipulation


AI can fake stories, create deep fake videos, and play impostors cleverly. In the hands of manipulators, AI can be leveraged to develop actions in humans who buy, vote, and act. While it can be used for good, like changing behaviors to benefit societies, AI can also steer us toward bad outcomes.

AI Invades Privacy

AI can listen everywhere simultaneously across various communication channels and existing data fabrics to expose information that individuals would not want available to the public or particular parties. It is scary for most folks and can be used to breach the trust and security of many relationships with individuals, businesses, and the government.

AI Ignites Economic & Geopolitical Competition

AI will be the fuel for competition in the fast-growing digital economies. The nations that harness AI will have a distinct advantage over those that do not. It will likely turn into an arms race of sorts.

AI Enables Laziness & Skills Atrophy

AI will show significant promise and results in assisting organizations and individuals. Specific skills will not be maintained, and people will want AI to do more for them. Some of the skills are mundane, so that might be good, but setting an entitlement attitude is not a great value to deliver from AI.

My Top Ten Encouragements

AI Enables Advanced Automation


Organizations are in love with Automation because of its positive effect on profits. AI will supercharge Automation with smarts, speed, and precision. Operationally, AI will be a big win. Low-level work will be eliminated, and AI will enrich and augment most jobs.

AI is Always On

AI never rests and is available 24/7 if the AI infrastructure and applications are running. People need rest, and AI does not. As AI progresses to higher-level skills, new work classes will inherit a new level of availability.

AI Provides Real-time Knowledge & Wisdom

AI is excellent at providing just-in-time data and integrated, summarized, and massaged information. In the first era of AI, there will be a big emphasis on machine learning, information aggregation, pattern recognition, and knowledge delivery. All of this will help workers and individuals progress in their desired outcomes.

AI Assists in Task Completion

Not only will AI deliver knowledge, but it will also help people make decisions and perform tasks of all kinds. People and bots will be supercharged with additional perceptions, projections, skills, and abilities to take on work over their current station.

AI Specialization & Focus Delivers Precision

AI is so precise on low-level tasks it outperforms most workers. In addition, even when 100% precision is not necessary, AI can give the best alternatives with the best accuracy.

AI Delivers Better & Faster Decisions

AI is so fast and looks across multiple contexts, and it's impressive. Guided AI can find the best alternatives given even conflicting goals within explicit constraints. The data is complete better than other approaches, and alternative algorithms have the best chance of being correct.

AI Boosts Economic Growth


AI increases the productivity of many resources, so profits and GDP will flourish worldwide. Resources will be less stressed, and there will be more free time to generate new products and services.

AI Provides Continuous Monitoring of Results

Since AI never sleeps, KPIs, goals, outcomes, and emergent trends can be watched. AI will encourage continuous feedback, and improvement can be baked into responses.

AI delivers Error Reduction.


AI does not make mistakes at the operational levels and allows tactical and strategic management to get the best results in a modeling way.

AI Can Complete Dangerous Tasks

Tasks that risk the safety of humans can be automated with AI, or humans can be assisted safely.

Net; Net:

After putting down my thoughts and thinking deeply about AI, I fear AI long-term. If the control of AI ends up in the hands of bad actors or AI becomes self-aware and disregards its guardrails or constraints, we are in for a wild ride. AI-driven wars where guardrails are removed or mismatched will also cause bad outcomes. AI likely becomes as powerful as nuclear weapons in the hands of both good and bad actors that mutually keep each other at bay. Right now, AI promises to improve our lives, and I see a rosy outlook for the near term. AI will contribute to individuals, groups, and organizations for sure. The long-term evolution and potential misuse keep me up at night. We must forge ahead to stay competitive, but AI must be monitored, governed, and balanced. There will be tremendous and sad stories ahead of us, so keep your eyes open and stay in a learning mode together. Long live AI, but don't take the oxygen out of the room for humans.

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Art for the 3rd Quarter 2023

 I took the 2nd quarter off from art. I relaxed in spring and early summer, only focusing on family events and my second album. So, I'm back on the horse with some new art. I hope you enjoy them. You can see my works by clicking here 



                                             Time Travel 


                                              Fire Storm 

                                  


                                             Emergence 


                                             Color Reef 

Monday, September 11, 2023

Preview of AI Coming to You

You can hardly escape the topic of AI these days. Various definitions of AI are floating around, and predictions of where AI is going. Some sources want you to be scared of AI, others want you to depend on them for guideposts as AI rolls out, and still others are pumped about the future benefits. For my sanity, I put together the three eras AI will likely go through as it heads towards progress and assisting humankind. While the benefits of AI will be plentiful and the impact will be disruptive, we can guide the growth and development of new digital experiences/outcomes that AI can assist. If we are mindful, we can prevent out-of-control consciousness and sentient AI. Of course, AI technologies can be used for both good and bad, so our lawmakers need to add forms of governance, and we all need to share what works for the good of all. In Figure 1, I have defined the three eras of AI I expect to see going forward.


 Figure 1 The Three Eras of AI


Intelligent Behavior Axis

While there were two AI winters in the past because the expectations of AI did not deliver as promised, I do not foresee a third AI winter. Organizations are prudently leveraging AI in new ways to speed up information for advantage and leverage generative capabilities that use aggregate bodies of knowledge and creations to bootstrap new content. All of this is to assist resources organizations use to create better experiences/journeys for their constituents supported by more intelligent processes that can lead to situational advantage at all levels. This advantage will likely start operational, leading to better tactics and eventually to strategies that adapt to emergent conditions and dynamic management of many scenarios, anticipated or not. The anticipation for more intelligent and assisted behaviors has never been more significant with the advent of AI leverage.

Freedom Level Axis

The real rub with AI revolves around ensuring that AI stays a positive force for good outcomes. It is not a massive problem in the first era where we unwrap the benefits of automation, generation, and the leverage of collective knowledge that goes further than people expect. AI will likely be supervised, and its results can be explainable in the first era where AI's freedom will be carefully watched with teased testing and trained algorithms. The freedom level for AI will be low in this era. As organizations become more confident in AI, the freedom for AI will shift to less supervision, with expandability being the key tether for AI. In the second era of AI, there will be focused assistance to vertical industries, horizontal organizational functions, and individuals to supercharge them with just-in-time knowledge, speedy multi-dimensional sensing, and assistance in complex multi-disciplinary enabled actions. The resources assisted that are carbon-based will automatically demand to explain ability until trust is established in the AI assistance and advice. In the case of automation and bots, outcomes will be overseen with significant testing if danger is involved. The third era is where AI becomes independent, where AI detects, decides, and acts on its own. Knowing that AI will lead here, built on top of the infrastructure of the previous eras, will not be good enough. Organizations will be giving AI goals to drive towards and governance boundaries (constraints) to give AI the desired outcomes as guidance. After the fact, the results will be audited to tweak the goals and boundaries to dial in AI.

Collective Knowledge AI Era

AI significant benefits in this era include the leverage of natural language processing, including image/voice recognition in the content scope, leveraging mining strengths, and event/pattern detection with machine learning. These all help accelerate desired automation that continues to learn and improve. The generative aspect of this era leverages collective knowledge/content to amplify creation and enhance significant personalization while employing adaptive learning to enhance discovery and deepen knowledge. There are considerable time and cost savings as low-hanging benefits of this era.

Persona Based AI Era

The benefits of this era revolve around assisting roles with the proper content and knowledge to accomplish goals. It is performed by speedy resources and advice for roles to achieve steps leading to desired outcomes. It can be at the individual resource level to optimize any size or shape resource, including people, software, or devices at the edge of a remote situation. Having a base of collective knowledge now combined with algorithms and AI component software gives these personas the power to go beyond their base skill level to better optimization. The persona can go beyond individual resources to groups of aggregated resources heading in the same direction, like vertical industries, horizontal supply chains, and functional groups aimed at complex sets of goals.

Guided Results AI Era

AI switches from narrow and focused intelligence to general intelligence in this era. The benefits in this arena are aimed at attaining optimum overall optimization while dealing with change waves on a more real-time basis. AI guides the overall journey, value chain, or process to optimum results with changes in flight. AI becomes a broker for detection, decision-making, and actions appropriate for the situation(s). It creates situational awareness and advantages at the operational, tactical, and strategic levels.

Net; Net:

The future of AI is rife with potential, and organizations are just scratching the surface as of this writing. The benefits are significant, and so are the headwinds. A bounty of vendors is waiting to help, but sorting through the list will be challenging. As the AI eras progress, there will be combinations of vendors that will deliver multiple integrated benefit pools. The skills are scarce but will emerge quickly to drive the apparent benefits. Taming AI with a balanced legislation approach that works across legal frameworks and countries will be a long-term goal; however, self-control with great goals and guardrails can give early adopters a significant advantage. I will be delivering more posts on the AI topic, so stay tuned. The oldies and goodies are listed in the additional AI readings section.


Additional AI Readings














What is the Most Significant Execution Challenge?

It has been a relaxing summer for the Sinur clan, but it is time to return to the grind. I'm about to fire off a new series of blog posts on AI that will be compelling for many. To do that in a more personal and inclusive way, I'd like to start with a small survey to focus on the biggest execution challenges you are having. Welcome back to my devoted followers, and I hope to gain some new followers.




The purpose of this brief 5-question multiple choice survey is to understand the greatest execution challenges leaders like yourself are facing so that I can get a holistic picture of these challenges across industries, geographies & roles.

We will circulate the final survey results to all participants as soon as the results are in and analyzed. You will receive data, graphs, and personalized insights into the most significant execution challenges being faced overall, as well as by industry, geography, and role. We guarantee you will gain a new perspective and find value in the data! 

Monday, May 8, 2023

Thankful for 10 Great Years

 I've been pretty good about letting folks know what seems to be getting read quarterly and annually on this blog. While I have the last 90-day summary included in this post, I also did an inception-to-date analysis to see what topics hit a home run for my typical audience, including business types and technical types. Before I dive into the charts as usual, I wanted to thank my loyal readers and say this blog experiment has turned out well. After I retired from full-time work with Gartner, I thought I still had more to give. While Garter was a great experience, the blog allowed me to explore topics that would not get past management and editor oversight. Grammarly and my dear wife, Sherry, guided me along the way. Sherry had a strong Digital career retiring from IBM in 2005, and was a great manager. 

The blog is now approaching 830K reads over 645 posts. It has been read from 30+ countries regularly. My one true hope is that I helped peeps in their everyday job and just maybe got them to think a little differently. I received many comments and participated in some really nice conversations with readers. Here are the most popular topics on the blog of all time. Customer Journeys, Automation (RPA), Real-Time Dashboards, AI, Digital Business Platforms (DBP), Process Modeling, and Trends. Besides the US and Russia, Europe dominated the readership over the last 10 years. 


                                MOST POPULAR BLOG POSTS OVER 10 YEARS



                       THE MOST ACTIVE COUNTRIES BESIDES US & RUSSIA


                                                          LAST 90 DAYS
 


Tuesday, April 25, 2023

Success With Real-time Scenario Management

Complexity and uncertainty are becoming hurdles for organizations everywhere. The rate of increase for faster decisions and appropriate actions is accelerating. Look at what has happened recently in the banking sector. Withdrawals accelerated in a short period and greatly exceeded reserves in several situations. While this is still playing out, other sectors must apply the lessons we have learned. Keeping a real-time pulse on business targets and emerging patterns/trends is a crucial takeaway, but reevaluating the business contexts (aka scenarios) is also the key to success. Real-time dashboards and more proactive scenario management are important pairs to manage. Even though applied separately, they deliver benefits; combining them will become a key to long-term success.



Real-time Dashboards are data visualization tool that provides up-to-date status on goal attainment and out-of-bounds behaviors. These dashboards allow for easy understanding and digestion of current situations. They enable users to identify trends, patterns, or anomalies. Organizations often use real-time dashboards to monitor and track their operations, the effect of their tactics, and the shifting business contexts. Frequently financial performance is monitored in real-time, allowing businesses to make informed decisions and take immediate action when necessary. However, these results and tolerances are often tuned for expected or normal business contexts/scenarios, making them vulnerable if external conditions shift away from optimization. It is where scenario management needs to be in tune with the real-time world.

Scenario Management is a strategic planning and decision-making process that involves creating and evaluating different hypothetical situations or scenarios to be prepared for all scenarios. These scenarios are likely based on factors such as market trends, economic conditions, geopolitical activity, technological advancements, and other external and internal factors affecting an organization's future performance. Scenario management aims to help organizations prepare for future events and develop contingency plans to mitigate risks or take advantage of opportunities. Organizations can make more informed decisions and actions in future challenging situations by exploring multiple scenarios. It typically involves a team of experts developing and evaluating strategies and their potential outcomes. Mature organizations update these scenarios regularly.

The Convergence of real-time dashboards and more frequent scenario management is becoming a trend and a desired competency in successful organizations. Not only can an organization's operations keep a fine edge on their optimizations, but they can also sense emerging risks and opportunities and act on them timelier than in previous eras. For example, a financial institution can use real-time dashboards to monitor their stock price and combine it with scenario management to simulate market conditions and their impact on their stock prices. As a result, it can help the institution make informed investment decisions and hedge risks. Similarly, a manufacturing company can use real-time dashboards to monitor their production lines and combine them with scenario management to simulate different supply chain disruptions and their impact on production output and downstream customers. As a result, it can help the company develop contingency plans and adjust production schedules to minimize disruptions. Combining real-time dashboards with scenario planning can provide organizations with a comprehensive tool for monitoring m planning and decision-making.

Best Practices for Convergence would include the following:

· Define Your Objectives: Start by Defining your goals and objectives using real-time dashboards within expected and unexpected scenarios. What are the key metrics, KPIS, and tolerances you want to track?

· Identify Key Data Sources: Real-time dashboards rely on accurate and up-to-date data, so it's essential to identify your data sources and ensure they are reliable and consistent. It may involve integrating data from multiple systems or platforms.

· Develop Scenarios: Work with your team to develop a range of scenarios based on various factors, such as market trends, economic conditions, and other external and internal factors that could impact your organization’s performance

· Test Your Scenarios: Use historical data to test your scenarios using various algorithm approaches to identify impacts on metrics and KPIs.

· Create Visualizations: Use visualization tools and algorithms to display KPIs and metrics. It should help evaluate the impact of different scenarios in real-time. Outliers should be practiced as well.

· Use Automation: Consider automating data updates and scenario testing processes to make adjustments as needed.

· Review and Adjust: Regularly review your real-time dashboards, scenarios, and potential outliers (black swans). It will help organizations stay on top of changing conditions. In addition, the frequency of adjustments should accelerate over time.

Net: Net:

The tried-and-true approach is "Make a Decision and Take Action; otherwise, You'll Fail By Default" I'd add, "You Better Consider Many Contexts Bolstered by the Latest Data, Learnings, and Predictions" before your act. Not just "fire, ready, aim," but "ready, aim, fire" The organizations that practice the convergence described above will survive, thrive, and capitalize in the shifting contexts.



Monday, April 10, 2023

Art for the 1st Quarter 2023

My paintbrushes took a break, so I concentrated on digital art this quarter. I hope you enjoy them. You can see the rest of my art by clicking here



                                                Coral Ribbons


                                                     FireFly


                                                     Frog Surfing


                                                     Smoke

Friday, March 31, 2023

A Ransomware Recovery Maturity Model is a Must


Ransomware is one of the biggest cyber security threats in 2023 and seriously threatens businesses of all sizes. Ransomware attacks work by infecting your network and locking down your data and computer systems until a ransom is paid to the hacker. A user or organization's critical data is encrypted, so they cannot access files, databases, or applications. A ransom is then demanded to provide access and keep data resources from downstream data sales. Ransomware is often designed to spread across a network and target database and file servers and can thus quickly paralyze an entire organization.

The overall amount of damages paid for ransomware attacks in 2021 was around $20 billion, with payouts in 2030 estimated to total approximately $231 billion. It is just the tip of the cost iceberg because all organizations will pay significant sums of money to defend in depth against Ransomware. Once struck, the time to recover using traditional methods ALWAYS requires way more time and effort than is ever considered. According to the IST Ransomware Task Force, the average downtime can be 21 days, with full recovery taking an average of 287 days from the initial ransomware incident response. The threats and costs are growing so fast that Ransomware has risen to the number three concern during this critical infrastructure attack era. Gartner says businesses are shoring up their defenses by spending another 11% more in 2023. Therefore a Ransomware Recovery Maturity Model is essential and becoming part of an overall security effort covering and recovering from threats and attacks.


 

Figure 1 Ransomware Recovery Maturity Model

The Dangers

As cybercrime escalates, the dangers and costs increase dramatically. It may not be apparent, but adversaries are stockpiling your vulnerabilities. Once made public, there can be a feeding frenzy. A growing number of threats from various sources and kinds of attacks should concern businesses. There is now a sophisticated and growing ecosystem of harmful sources, including:

· Corporate Gangs/Mafia

· Developers

· Access Brokers

· Competitive Forums

· Affiliates

· Crypto Brokers/Money Launders

· Dark Public Relations

Today Ransomware is plenty sophisticated, with not only lockdowns of data but the selling of exfiltrated credentials, data, and even direct access to data and systems. The bad actors are stealing from accounts, committing personal extortion, hacking for hire, and selling sensitive customer/lead data. They use various methods and techniques, including:

· Installing Adware

· Crypto mining

· Credential Theft

· Launching Attacks

· Sending Spam Emails

· Creating Proxy Sites

· Resource Renting

Ransomware of the future intends to maximize the haul, optimizing the revenue per event and victim by leveraging advanced automation and intelligent bots that can swarm to opportunities.

Why a Ransomware Recovery Maturity Model?

Ransomware is rising to the point of a ubiquitous threat, morphing to become more lethal by the day. A growing Ransomware Ecosystem makes the perpetrators seem like a regular organization. Bad actors release press releases to put a veneer on top of the gangs, bribers, opportunistic developers, and brokers. These bribers are out to take your money, so laying down strategies and tactics is undoubtedly worth the time and money. If they can't bribe your organization, they will sell your data for profit or even do both. They are trying to maximize their profit per victim. The above model Figure 1 lays out the progressive steps towards reactively or proactively dealing with Ransomware. The model can be used as a standard classification of ransomware protection efforts while evaluating ransomware software and service providers. The model becomes a gauge for protection levels.

It is essential to visualize the efforts that can be taken to head off the inevitable attacks or sneaky events. Ransomware is the fastest-growing vulnerability associated with cybersecurity and deserves its own set of detection techniques, proven faster reactive approaches, and proactive steps for evolving assurances. Organizations need to have a plan to deal with this growing menace. A ransomware maturity model overlaid over a well-accepted and established security model is presented here. While security gets significant attention and investment from top management in most organizations, Ransomware has not. The model phases below outline the necessary maturity steps in dealing with Ransomware.

What are the Standard Maturity Levels?

Aware

Aware is the level where management realizes that Ransomware is an issue that needs action. Security folks recognize that bad actors start small with low risk leading to acceleration and expansion. Bad actors see a compromised victim as a growing bag of money to tap and can't be trusted once the bribe is paid. Sometimes they steal data and credentials to sell later. Later they often crypto-mine and install adware. In case they use an advanced attack to steal money or leverage a campaign to phish trusted partners or customers. Education is the key to awareness even as new nasty twists emerge, but data is the essential source to attack.

Active

There needs to be a commitment to detection and recovery that protects people, processes, and data. Active action puts up some resistance and foils some simple, early attacks. It is taking a defensive reaction of informing your people and notifying constituents to watch out for phishing attacks that open holes in the security perimeter is a vital action here. It means better-communicated policies to mitigate social engineering attacks that entice people to open emails and links, allowing a gateway for further evil actions. Multi-factor authentication is a typical response. It may mean you have to teach users to spot rogue URLs.

Operational

Operational is where there is a concerted effort to put good practices into place that make it hard for ransomware perpetrators to cash into revenue streams. It means focusing on understanding the risky areas of your organization's assets. There needs to be a repeating process for classifying data and processes for the organization's risk level. Risk analysis and prioritization are vital ongoing efforts. Organizations must assume they have already been infected and look for dormant attachments to patches and other code parasites. Key data sources must be clean before backups can be trusted. It means that data changes must be tracked and analyzed. Once cleaned, some mass data restoration procedures must be in place.

Managed

Managed is where the efforts turn to early detection, focus, and isolation. Now batch detection depends on real-time. Intrusions are found early, and affected data is isolated whenever possible to prevent infection spread. Isolation allows for a more focused recovery that optimizes speed to restoration. Even if isolation is not possible, automation of the recovery process should be established. Knowing that a clean backup is available close in synch with current operations allows for automation of mass recovery minimally or focused recovery ideally. It makes data defense and protection a cornerstone of response to Ransomware.

Optimized

It is making this automation smarter and closer to self-healing, the next step in the maturity model. It is done without human intervention except for notification that it has occurred. It means that AI and analytics are used to detect cyberattacks that are in progress, respond to threats intelligently, and eventually enable bots that detect advanced malware. It now becomes "good-bots vs. bad-bots."

Net; Net:

A ransomware maturity model is necessary to determine the level of protection and understand what is being done to avoid paying the bad guys. The maturity model also is used as a guide for the protection from ransomware journey that gives directions and guideposts to show progress and feel like progress is understood in context. Ensure your ransomware technology and service providers subscribe to a maturity model to track progress for better protection. It is an escalating war that needs constant tuning. Organizations can't wait to be attacked, as a ransomware event's probability of getting hit by the day is getting higher. It's not just the crooks as we hear of wars and rumors of wars generating cyber attacks that may include payoffs. Getting ahead of these attacks is crucial by spending more time and effort upfront to defend, detect, and data-proof your organization. Hiring an experienced set of services or buying important software is wise.

Additional Resources:

CIS Controls

Blog Posts 

Sample Vendors


Friday, March 3, 2023

A Creatives Use of AI, Algorithms and Automation

It was not imagined that technology would significantly impact the arts and artists over a decade ago. However, technology is not only assisting the arts; it is starting to turn the arts on its head. The arts have traditionally used technology as an assistant for the creators, but there is a growing movement to have AI generate art as it learns from large bases of image and audio data. I plan on leveraging several of these emerging software capabilities this year, but I have successfully leveraged various technologies as a creator over the last decade. This post aims to give examples of several forms of tech that improved my art and music.

Art:

Traditional artists want an online sales presence to expand their impact and sales. I have used digital flatbed scanners to sell art in a limited copy series. The benefit to my customers is that I can lower the price of any one piece of art by spreading the creation costs over several copies. The benefit to me is that my art gets shared and appreciated in many households and business spaces. The resulting scans can be put online in online marketplaces with high-quality images of my art



MY BEST SELLING HAND PAINTING REPLICATED DIGITALLY to CANVAS or METAL

Digital artists use technology to generate, alter and finish their art pieces. I have used algorithms to do all three to create and alter my most popular pieces that are considered fractals or digitally altered fractals. These pieces have helped me win or place in numerous art contests and placed in locations I could only dream of in the past. My pieces have appeared in the Muse De Lourve, Times Square, and Miami Scope. I used software to generate a starting point that I refined until it was properly colored, staged, and highlighted. In some cases, there were post-processing software tools that made these images even better. I expect to try some generative AI tools soon to see how to create pieces of beauty. 



MY BEST SELLING DIGITAL PIECE REPLICATED DIGITALLY to METAL

Music:

All of my recent songs have been digitally engineered with software guided by the skills of a very experienced and successful engineer. Engineering helped shape many individual voice and instrument soundtracks into cohesive pieces of music. All of my music used software to capture sounds from real instruments and create sounds from midi keyboards. These sounds were often enhanced to add effects to make them impact the mood and feel of each song. These sounds were recorded on multiple tracks to be weaved into a song, along with multiple voice recordings that were comped into a cohesive soundtrack. While few of my soundtracks were generated by technology, technology added effects. None of my music would exist without the capable skills of musicians and co-producers supported by various technologies. Even my music promotion used technology to create compelling videos. Here are my top two most popular songs so far, 



Net: Net: 

Technology has been a clear collaborator in both my art and music, but the creators guided the overall outcomes. I suspect the balance of collaboration will lean more toward technology over time, but I don't see a day coming when the creators are phased out. I will be testing the bounds of technology uses in the arts and hope it will help the resulting works in a more positive way. 

Additional Reading:

AI & Art 

AI Art Generators

AI Music Generators

Designer AI

AI Case Studies

AI Automation

AI & Data

AI Myths

Monday, January 30, 2023

2023 Top 5 Technical Trends

Organizations will focus on assured success in 2023. Organizations will focus less on "moon shots" and more on accurately hitting targets on earth. While the allure of new digital solutions and the temptation of true transformation will still seem to call, organizations will stick with the attainable. It does not mean that organizations will not innovate; the innovation will be undertaken with wisdom while staying congruent with the Top 5 Business Trends in 2023. (Click here for more information). Part of that wisdom will also be keeping an eye for emergent business opportunities and technologies that could be of advantage or threats that derail focused efforts that are highly synched to the stakeholders and executive directions. Organizations will double down on successful technologies that enhance the bottom line while keeping a watchful eye for technical innovation that makes sense within risk tolerances.


Real-Time Observability

All aspects of business are speeding up and have to deal with emerging conditions, patterns, opportunities, and threats. It will put a premium on real-time observation, decisions, and actions. Some of these real-time decisions and activities will be made on the edge more autonomously within management and governance guard rails, sometimes called constraints. Managers will make more integrative decisions requiring more detailed data, often sifted and enhanced by AI, and need a lateral view that looks for the implications in multiple contexts. It will drive two significant activities over and above the resurgent analytic sectors. One is integrated emerging visibility that looks across and outside the organization. Often there will be integrated monitoring or a management cockpit that will visualize results, notify managers of significant detections, and allow them to try different alternatives leveraging prediction, simulation, and various analytical modeling to take appropriate and quick action. The simple decisions will get automated, and autopilot actions will be suggested or enacted even at the edge. The other is establishing, growing, and managing a data mesh. All of this depends entirely on having an intelligent data mesh that knows where the data is and the quality of said data regardless of data type (operational databases, behavioral data, voice, or video), no matter where it resides. This huge vacuum is being filled as we speak with emergent and new data management software that catalog and reach into various sources (cloud or not), notifying the manager of the data quality scores.

Intelligent Automation

All the focus on hyper-automation is starting to pay off. Organizations are getting substantial benefits from newer automation approaches. Consequently, there will be additional bets on combinations of technologies that deliver the best returns. These returns will contribute to the bottom line for current earnings and help fund any new tech efforts that management deems essential to compete. The silo technologies coming together to deliver great automation include process/workflow, RPA, Process/Data mining, Business Lead, Low Code, Monitoring, Simulation, Mapping, and Analytics. There are a variety of combinations that have compelling case studies, and many organizations have had significant successes. A portfolio of initiatives that deliver savings and opportunities to support business directives is a must for 2023. A platform of integrated technologies is a big help in providing the benefits of technical combinations. Click here to see example combinations and vendors that have proven successful as a Digital Business Platform (DBP)

AI Expanding and Adapting Its Role

Ai has proven its value in learning from data, which will continue to gather steam focused on and around desired business outcomes. When combined with analytic and statistical models, AI can move into more thinking situations on top of the already important detection and pattern recognition duties AI is known for today. The data sources for detection mining will expand beyond traditional data to include images, videos, voice, and communications. The kind of thinking situations AI can move into in the short term would consist of knowledge acquisition/leverage, modeling, projections, and autonomous actions in emergent situations. Conversational and explainable AI will make substantial headway in 2023, building on existing success. A new movement in AI will revolve around intelligent chatbots, smart automation bots, new forms of deep learning and pattern recognition, plus intelligent applications. AI will also assist the creatives in 2023 and beyond with writing, art and music. It will start as a collaborative approach and get more independent over time. As AI ethics mature, interactions with our employees and customer will become routine for AI.

Platform Consolidation

Organizations will be looking to consolidate costs and integrate isolated technology streams. It will drive a trend for integrated platforms that tend to be technology supermarkets that promotes more one-stop shopping for the technology leaders as business ramps up the demand for speed to results. Companies will look at their current platforms and look to consolidate their numbers if possible and drive additional uses of the strategic platforms. This trend will hit compute infrastructure, networks plus storage, and databases. The current surround and leverage multiple platforms trend will continue, but there will be increased pressure to eliminate some. It also means that automation and digital business platforms (DBP) will experience the same pressure. It will put a premium on general-purpose DBPS linked to pure specialty platforms.

More Secure Digital Commerce

We see increased activity from bad actors in security incursions and ransomware. It is getting more serious, and the threat of cybersecurity wars is looming. Organizations will take extra precautions to prepare for ransomware and security incursions. As cybercrime escalates, the dangers and costs increase dramatically. It may not be apparent, but adversaries are stockpiling your vulnerabilities. Once made public, there can be a feeding frenzy. A growing number of threats from various sources and attacks should concern businesses. There is now a sophisticated and growing ecosystem of harmful sources. As the world heads for stable digital commerce, there will be increased efforts to engage government and financial industry leaders to create secure models that guarantee free trade. All efforts will be aimed at rigorous testing of all safeguards.

Net; Net:

Increased productivity from intelligent automation and human assistance will enable organizations to expand their experiences for constituents while saving money. Get ready for higher levels of technical and human collaborations. Consolidation and automation savings will be allocated to investing in the platform's safety and leverage. Still, managers will keep their eyes open for technologies not to miss out on in 2023. It will require a more disciplined approach to staying linked to goals in a near real-time fashion while dealing with various and dynamic people and automation resources.



Nobody Knows Me

 Here is another popular song from my recent Amazing Journey Album, co-produced by Ethan Foxx and engineered by Jimmy "Cat" Caterine. This song is about someone in a very dark place that gets rescued by love. Love can reach into the darkest corners and change lives. It describes someone painfully alone, probably hanging out on social media and watching the world move on without them. Thankfully love lifts this person to a hopeful plane again after they realize they need to change.

Click here for the lyric video.

What Others Have Said About Nobody Knows Me 

Wonderful opening shooting into a tight Prog Rock style delivery with wicked Rush-like guitar work/drums throughout. 

David McCoy, Former DJ, and Retired Digital Consultant, Atlanta Georgia

“The blistering guitar solo really captures you and is quite memorable,” Bryon Robke, Biochemist, Loveland CO  

This had some excellent lead guitar, and other background instrumentation, combining to create a mysterious, ominous, foreboding sound. Bill Martin, Retired Color Master, and Artist



Click Here For an Album Sampler

Click Here For the Album on YouTube